Navigating too much reading about special elections in the United States rarely helps, and a heavy snowstorm makes turnout even more uncertain. Yet President Joe Biden and the Democrats can look to a hopeful result on Tuesday in New York, where Tom Suozzi won a seat in the House of Representatives that was vacated in December by the expulsion of George Santos, the Republican who faces 20 counts of charges.
With Suozzi defeating Republican Mazi Pilip in a district that covers parts of Long Island and Queens, the GOP’s already narrow grip on the House becomes even more fragile: 219 seats for Republicans versus 213 for Democrats. That math tightens Mike Johnson’s position as speaker, given a deeply divided caucus weighed down by far-right fringe influence.
The margin for error for Johnson shrinks. In any party-line vote moving forward, he can afford to lose only two of his own members. If Suozzi had already held the seat this Tuesday, Republicans would not have been able to advance the impeachment inquiry against Alejandro Mayorkas, the secretary of homeland security. And there is a broad menu of legislation on the docket, including urgent measures needed in early March to avert a government shutdown.
Immigration
Immigration has been a central theme in this Tuesday’s special election, and it is expected to remain so in November, just as it did in the 2022 midterms when Santos helped Republicans regain a district Biden won in 2020. Suozzi, who has spent almost thirty years in politics and previously served in Congress until 2022 before an ill-fated bid for governor, may have signaled how Democrats should address this explosive issue to moderate and independent voters, as Donald Trump and the GOP aim to make it a central talking point in the fall to attack Biden.
Facing a border crisis and record migrant crossings under Biden, with Democratic cities strained by the influx, Suozzi has broken with party norms by urging stricter border policies. He even urged Biden to close the border at times, a stance that marks a notable departure from the party line.
As a centrist candidate, Suozzi argued for bipartisan fixes to a “broken” system. He backed a recent bipartisan Senate proposal linking tighter border measures with Ukraine and Israel aid, a plan that fell to Republican opposition under pressure from Trump.
Israel and abortion
Suozzi, leveraging decades of political experience against a comparatively inexperienced challenger, campaigned on strong support for Israel, which resonates with a proportional share of voters in a district with a significant pro-Israel Jewish electorate. He prevailed over Pilip, an Orthodox Jewish candidate born in Ethiopia who had lived in Israel and served in its armed forces.
Pro-Palestinian activists interrupted Suozzi’s victory speech on occasion, accusing him of backing “the genocide of the Palestinians.” Those moments also reveal the challenges Biden and Democrats face with a portion of their base who question unwavering support for Israel amid the Gaza humanitarian crisis.
In New York, where local tax issues have also shaped the race, Suozzi’s pledge to defend abortion rights emerged as a major theme, anticipated to mobilize Democratic voters in November. He has argued that the Republican candidate’s ambiguity on abortion is a political vulnerability to exploit.
One factor that decided Tuesday’s outcome had nothing to do with policy. A snowstorm in the Northeast severely limited turnout, benefiting Suozzi because many Democrats vote early or by mail. Despite efforts by Republicans to clear roads with private plow services in precincts they deemed favorable, the weather favored the Democratic candidate.