Clouds hovered over Joe Biden’s 2024 election outlook as several U.S. state elections offered a glimmer of relief for Democrats. Similar to dynamics seen in 2022, mobilization around abortion rights reinforced a key Democratic argument after the Supreme Court rolled back federal protections and shifted power to the states.
In Ohio, voters approved a measure aligned with abortion protections within the state constitution, a move that kept the state inside the Democratic column in contrast to its traditional Republican lean. The referendum drew roughly 57 percent support, a notable rise from prior levels after last year’s Supreme Court decision. Earlier in August, residents rejected a Republican bid to raise the hurdle for constitutional amendments to 60 percent.
Meanwhile in Virginia, Democrats not only held onto control of the State Senate but also reclaimed the House of Delegates. The outcome reflected significant public opposition to restrictions on abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy, a policy area championed by the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin. The governor, seen by some as a potential future national figure, faced pressure to stand firm against Democratic proposals and to respond to conservative critiques at the state level.
In Kentucky, Biden secured another term in a state that has trended heavily Republican since 2020. Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, known for his broad cross-partisan appeal, publicly distanced himself from the president while repeatedly denouncing the Trump-supported Republican rival, Daniel Cameron, who asserted strong veto power in issues surrounding pregnancy interruptions. Beshear guided a campaign that highlighted abortion as a central issue, including a high-profile ad featuring a survivor of sexual assault at a young age, underscoring the political intensity around reproductive rights.
Pennsylvania added to the conversation as abortion policy influenced the state supreme court selection, tilting the balance toward progressive judges. In Mississippi, a deeply conservative state, Governor Tate Reeves secured reelection in a race where abortion was not a central campaign issue, and the Democratic challenger positioned himself as pro-life to align with local sentiment.
keys to 2024
Tuesday’s results are read as part of the larger 2024 landscape. For Democrats, the outcomes offer momentum that abortion can galvanize voters amid broader concerns about the economy and leadership. With the president’s popularity dipping and dissatisfaction mounting among younger and minority voters, observers note that the coalition that brought Biden to the White House appears vulnerable. Yet the momentum in some states suggests a path to defending abortion protections, especially through ballot initiatives in states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and potentially Florida in November of the following year.
In Ohio, pre-election surveys suggested that even some Republican and independent voters backed a constitutional safeguard for abortion rights, despite broader party trends. The contrast with other races still highlights how state-level dynamics can diverge from national party lines during referendum campaigns.
Across the country, the elections underscored a continuing pattern: support for abortion rights remains a potent political divider. While some Republicans have shifted away from the most sweeping restrictions, others advocate for limits in early pregnancy periods. The national debate remains unsettled, with many Republicans reluctant to commit to federal vetoes or nationwide bans given electoral realities and public opinion skewed by personal experiences and regional differences.
The current landscape also features the field of candidates trying to shape the 2024 nomination. Among the leading contenders, some avoid explicit pledges on federal abortion policy while emphasizing flexibility and compromise. The ongoing debate reflects a larger challenge for the Republican and Democratic camps alike: balancing strong policy stances with the practical realities of a diverse electorate that spans urban centers and rural communities across the United States and Canada. [Citation: National election coverage, 2024 campaign reporting]