After the NATO summit in Lithuania this week, it is clear there is no doubt about one point: Ukraine cannot join the European Union while it remains at war. The alliance leader stated that joining NATO during active conflict would risk widening the war into a broader confrontation. Still, the door to future integration with the Atlantic alliance remains open, with conditions that could allow inclusion when Ukraine is ready. At the same time, leaders welcomed the G7’s commitment to pursue bilateral security guarantees with Kyiv.
That stance framed the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s remarks as he celebrated the Vilnius summit’s outcomes after an initial period of frustration over the invitation process and the calendar for Ukraine’s path to alignment. Ukraine has long sought closer ties with NATO, and the alliance has continued to provide new military aid and longer-term support to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry. Zelenskiy underscored that while some partners hesitate to engage in talk of full integration while the war persists, the progress shown at Vilnius was meaningful.
From Lithuania, the discussion moved to Helsinki, where President Biden highlighted Finland’s accession to NATO and the likelihood that Sweden will join soon, following Turkey’s approval. Biden remarked that NATO’s membership would soon reach 32 once all remaining objections are resolved. He noted that the alliance is closer than ever to full unity. In the background, Russia’s internal tensions, including the Wagner Group’s activities, continue to shape Kremlin calculations about the war. Biden stressed that nothing suggests Russia can win a broader confrontation.
Putin’s position was addressed with caution. The U.S. president suggested that Putin faces a difficult path out of the conflict and that any deal to end the war depends on the choices made in Moscow. The assessment emphasized that Russia would need a credible settlement aligned with its own interests. The broader takeaway was a shared expectation that the Ukrainian counteroffensive, while challenging, is reshaping smart strategic calculations across the region, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank as the alliance grows in cohesion and readiness.
Officials reiterated that Moscow cannot sustain the war indefinitely. The question remains whether Russia will find a politically viable and economically acceptable path to end the conflict, and whether Kyiv will be able to sustain momentum in its defense and reform efforts. The overarching message from the leaders was clear: continued support for Ukraine, a steady pace toward alliance reforms, and a cautious but firm expectation that security guarantees and interoperability will advance in the coming months.
As the discussions at Vilnius and Helsinki unfolded, the region watched closely how alliance members balance deterrence with diplomacy. The commitment to support Ukraine—through military aid, defense modernization, and strategic coordination—reflects a pragmatic approach to a crisis that remains unresolved. The path to lasting peace will depend on continued cooperation, careful decision-making, and a willingness to adapt to evolving security realities across Europe.