Germany faced limited pressure from its allies this time. The plan involves stationing 4,000 soldiers in Lithuania to safeguard the alliance’s eastern flank, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, in a ceremony with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nausėda. This figure exceeds the current deployment of about 1,300 troops on Lithuanian soil, roughly half of whom are German and form NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup in the region.
Pistorius noted that the troop deployment would not be immediate but is anticipated to occur in 2026. His statement aligns with preparations for a NATO summit scheduled in the United States for July 11-12. Lithuania, like its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Latvia, is pressing the Alliance to strengthen its border defenses. The concern stems not only from Lithuania’s border with Russia through the Kaliningrad enclave but also from potential threats arising from Belarus, where Moscow plans to deploy nuclear weapons this July, as announced by the Kremlin. Stoltenberg has stated that NATO holds about 300,000 troops ready to respond if a member state is threatened, while stressing there is no indication of an imminent Russian plan to use them. Baltic air surveillance continues for the three states that lack independent air forces.
The presence of the Wagner private military company looms as a new threat vector. Evgeny Prigozhin, the group’s former leader, has reportedly noted that Belarus has become a haven for war criminals, a claim Nausėda echoed on social media after a meeting with Lithuania’s Defense Council. The dissolution of Wagner’s leadership and speculation about a restructuring in Belarus followed negotiations between Prigozhin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, with theoretical proposals including Prigozhin’s potential retirement in Belarus and a realignment of Wagner personnel within the country.
defenseless country
Lithuania, once part of the Soviet sphere like Estonia and Latvia, now participates in both NATO and the European Union. It perceives heightened vulnerability from Belarus in particular. In February 2022, well before Russia opened its invasion of Ukraine, Lithuania condemned a hybrid warfare campaign that involved thousands of participants. Refugees were pushed toward Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland’s borders by Lukashenko’s regime, and the ongoing migration crisis has left hundreds of people in precarious, no-man’s-land conditions, drawing condemnation from NGOs on the ground.
The hybrid warfare strategy did not immediately threaten border security at the time. As Russia intensified its assault on Ukraine, Lithuania saw a surge in Western troop deployments on its soil. Germany conditioned its troop deployment on access to the appropriate infrastructure, including suitable barracks capable of housing a brigade of that scale. Pistorius outlined a two-year timeline as a practical framework, but Nausėda and Stoltenberg both signaled an intention to accelerate planning toward 2025.
The Vilnius gathering slated for Monday is part of broader prep work for the upcoming summit. Stoltenberg aims to convene a 32-member alliance, with Sweden expected to participate once its status is resolved. Turkey continues to withhold final agreement on Sweden’s membership, citing concerns about terrorism-related issues. A fresh meeting is hoped for mid-July to clear remaining obstacles and push forward with the alliance’s expanded framework.
Sources familiar with these developments emphasize that the discussions center on deterrence, readiness, and regional resilience. Observers note that Lithuania’s experience illustrates how alliance commitments translate into concrete military posture while balancing geopolitical risks and domestic political considerations. The overarching message remains clear: the alliance seeks to deter aggression while maintaining open channels for dialogue among members, partners, and neighboring states. This approach includes regular exercises, border surveillance, and rapid deployment options designed to reassure Baltic states while signaling unity to potential aggressors. The information above reflects officials’ statements and public briefings through recent weeks and is intended to offer a concise snapshot of ongoing strategic planning. (Source at time of briefing: NATO and national defense communications, with attribution to participating leaders and defense officials.)