Poland appears set to reject a migration reform proposal from the European Commission, a stance that is widely anticipated even before the EU summit in Grenada. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the Law and Justice party (PiS), has long framed his position as a defense of national sovereignty. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who has been consistently aligned with Kaczynski, has warned that Warsaw will obstruct Brussels’ plans as they unfold in the current pre-election narrative. Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister who has governed for years, shares a similar skepticism toward Brussels policies and has aligned with Poland on several fronts. This creates a pattern of resistance from Central European governments toward certain EU migration approaches, as reported by analysts and political observers in the region.
PiS, led by Kaczynski along with Morawiecki and the country’s president Andrzej Duda, has made blocking the EU migration plan a central element of its campaign. The party has tied immigration to two questions in a parallel referendum that will run alongside Poland’s general elections this Sunday. One question asks voters about the controversial border wall along the Belarusian border, a barrier built with the aim of curbing irregular crossings from an area linked to Moscow. The second question probes support for admitting thousands of illegal immigrants from regions including the Middle East and Africa, framed by supporters as a forced relocation policy advocated by the EU.
The move to fold the consultation into the election timetable signals that PiS intends more than electoral victory. Current polls place PiS roughly in the low to mid thirties, with the liberal opposition led by Donald Tusk polling in the mid-to-high twenties. Analysts cited by political observers suggest the message to voters is a clear expression of rejection toward Brussels’ migration framework, rather than a simple test of party support. The posters circulating during the campaign reinforce this stance, depicting ruined urban landscapes and waves of migrants advancing toward Europe, with a visual emphasis on concern over how refugee flows intersect with security and national identity. Observers note a distinction between the portrayal of Ukrainian refugees who entered the EU through Poland and broader categories of migrants from other regions, reflecting a sustained emphasis on border control and national sovereignty dating back to the 2000s and reinforced during recent crises.
Alliance dynamics
Poland faces an electorate of about 29 million voters this Sunday, with the task of distributing the 460 seats in the Sejm. PiS currently commands a solid bloc of 235 seats, supported by two other right-leaning parties. To maintain power, the party would benefit from a coalition partner that aligns on core priorities. The Confederation movement stands as a potential ally, while the broader public remains split between right-leaning blocs and more liberal or libertarian groups that oppose some of PiS’s policy measures such as family support programs. The electoral math matters because it shapes how hard PiS will press on security and immigration issues as it negotiates governance with potential partners.
Dialogue about national security has become a dominant theme. Analysts stress that the emphasis extends beyond the immediate border with Belarus to the security of internal borders within Ukraine and the wider Schengen area. In policy debates, some political scientists note that security concerns are used to justify tighter border controls and selective aid, while others argue for a more open stance toward humanitarian obligations amid regional instability. The discussion of Ukrainian security and regional stability is central to understanding how Poland positions itself in EU politics today.
Border tensions and regional roles
Poland began constructing a substantial 180-kilometer border barrier with Belarus months before the broader conflict involving Russia intensified in 2022. The early focus on a robust barrier was part of a wider discussion about hybrid pressure from Minsk, which included large refugee movements. The portrayal of this border policy in Polish media and culture has sparked debate about the handling of refugees and migrants, and it has intersected with the broader portrayal of migration in films and public discourse. Critics have connected the wall strategy to historically charged images and to contemporary concerns about legality, humanitarian obligations, and border management. The policy shift has included tightening measures and stricter border enforcement as part of a broader national security approach, including considerations around aid to refugees and the strategic importance of Ukrainian support, even as some voices call for maintaining commitments to humanitarian response.
Poland has also faced scrutiny about its role within the EU regarding asylum and migration policy. Observers note a shift in emphasis from an open stance to a more guarded approach, with officials stressing the priority of national interests and rural economic concerns as part of the policy calculus. The discussion touches on how the country balances aid to those in need with concerns about social strain, integration challenges, and the political cost of accepting large numbers of newcomers. The international response to Poland’s stance has varied, with allies and opponents evaluating the implications for regional stability and EU cohesion.
Relations with Germany
PiS’s cautious posture toward Brussels has extended to relations with Germany and its political leadership. Officials have criticized actions by the European Commission and, at times, by key German policymakers whom they see as pressing for quicker reform. The reaction to Berlin’s measures, including border controls and visa policy scrutiny, has underscored a broader debate about how EU member states should manage migration and security within the Schengen framework. Poland’s leadership has argued that border security is essential to national sovereignty and to maintaining orderly conditions for those already within the country and the wider EU. In response, German authorities emphasize Eurozone and EU-wide approaches that coordinate asylum and border management, while acknowledging the complex political dynamics at play in Warsaw and Brussels.