Lebanon is described by Carmen Geha as a place that resembles an abusive husband. She is not alone in that view among Lebanese academics living abroad. Elections occur this Sunday in a country of about seven million people, where election posters carry synonyms for the word change.
The sentiment is palpable: after years of economic collapse, a brutal port explosion, and a wrenching post-revolution mood in Beirut, many fear that profound damage has already been done. Still, a sense of opportunity arises as voters prepare to cast ballots for the first time since the upheavals of 2019. The nation has endured a period of deep despair, with the capital forced to confront a long winter of shortages and uncertainty.
A non-monopolistic space is emerging alongside traditional parties and political leaders who dominated for 17 years after the civil war. A professor from the American University of Beirut points to a new phase in which 103 lists compete for 105 candidates in a landscape where independent groups are gaining attention amid a murmur that has turned into visible outcry. The political map now includes numerous new entrants, even as many independents acknowledge a system structured against them. The parliament holds 128 seats, distributed between Christians and Muslims, ensuring that familiar faces still hold sway after decades.
a poor country
For years, generations of Lebanese citizens felt politics did not belong to them. A lack of political and civic education, plus a perception that political activity is a dirty game, has persisted. A scholar from Sawti, an Arabic term meaning my voice, notes that information platforms are increasingly detailing non-sectarian candidates and the electoral framework itself. In the 2018 elections, a sole independent managed to win a seat. A journalist from a New York outlet notes that while a majority may be out of reach, a handful of representatives focused on common concerns would still mark a meaningful shift.
Three-quarters of the population live below the poverty line, according to UN estimates. The ongoing economic crisis has driven the local currency down, straining access to medicine, fuel, and electricity. The period is recalled as the poorest since the famine of 1919. The population faces deliberate hardship amid nepotism and entrenched ties with traditional parties. Independent candidates report occasional bribes offered in exchange for votes, highlighting the influence of external pressures on the electoral process.
The explosion went unpunished
The economic crisis is compounded by a climate of impunity that intensified after the August 2020 blast at the Port of Beirut, which killed more than two hundred people and left thousands injured. Today, the scene is often repainted with election posters, even as the investigation has faced obstacles that hinder accountability. As the tragedy remains a touchstone, two former ministers are among those facing questions over potential criminal negligence and continue to seek votes in the current race.
A widening gap exists between the public and the political class, with legitimacy largely dependent on foreign funding and weapons rather than broad popular consent, Geha notes to a Catalan daily. The withdrawal of a major Sunni leader and the presence of the Future Movement create a vacuum that some fear could be exploited by Hezbollah. A decisive victory by the group, branded as terrorist by several nations, could intensify Lebanon’s international isolation. Talks with the International Monetary Fund have dragged on as calls for reforms grow louder.
political fatigue
Voter turnout is expected to be mixed. A regional study for an international organization suggests overall disengagement, while some areas show support for independent candidates, with about half of surveyed individuals indicating openness to new voices. After the vote, a portion of voters remains wary of the outcomes, while others anticipate that certain factions, including Hezbollah, will maintain influence. A young doctor who recently relocated to the United Kingdom describes leaving a difficult situation in search of a future far from home. The sentiment is shared by many who feel that change is not easily achieved, even when revolutionary energy has flared in the past.
Another observer notes a sense of disillusionment with Lebanese politics, describing how earlier enthusiasm cooled into resignation. A substantial number of Lebanese people have left the country in recent years, and even as streets fill with protest slogans, a feeling persists that a wholesale transformation may not come from this election cycle. The upcoming Sunday could mark another ordinary day in a long, uncertain journey, especially for those who have decided to relocate for stability.
diaspora vote
In a nation whose diaspora is widely expected to outnumber residents, political participation abroad remains pivotal. Lebanese voters abroad participated in 2018, and this year many cast ballots a week ahead of locals. Early results show strong engagement among expatriates, with a notable share of returns exceeding previous levels. A political observer from Australia highlights the heightened involvement of diaspora communities and their potential impact on the overall result.
From both inside and outside the country, there is optimistic energy for reform, yet there is also recognition that real change will not hinge solely on this Sunday’s vote. The emphasis is on maintaining momentum and demanding accountability for past events at the port. Experts stress that staying informed and pressuring lawmakers to pursue concrete investigations will be essential to progress.
Many voters head to the polls while facing renewed hardship, with some planning to abstain in protest or to avoid making a choice under pressure. Others see value in casting a ballot to lend legitimacy to the process. Observers note that the level of participation varies widely, and for some, the act of voting is a step toward legitimizing a political system that has long struggled to deliver for its people.
A very fragmented opposition
The rise of new political groups brings a fragmented scene rather than a unified front. While many share the goal of ending sectarian divisions, disagreements on policy and strategy are common. This fragmentation complicates the path to securing a sizeable bloc and amplifies concerns about the impact of electoral rules that can discourage smaller players. The campaign also imposes practical hurdles, including a costly nomination process equivalent to several times the minimum wage, which can deter potential candidates. Despite these barriers, women’s representation has increased since the last election, yet women still constitute a minority among nominees.