Right to Invade Lebanon
Lebanese leaders hold to cautious optimism as the country’s future remains uncertain. Prime Minister Najib Mikati, describing the mood as cautiously optimistic, has said a ceasefire could arrive within hours or days. Hezbollah’s new secretary general Naim Qassem, in his first address since taking the post, stated that the group is open to negotiating a truce under clearly defined conditions. Overnight, Israeli media circulated a draft of the Washington proposed deal for Lebanon, though Beirut’s government is unlikely to accept it in its current form because it would infringe on sovereignty in multiple areas. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks continued.
Amos Hochstein, the Biden administration’s regional envoy, told Mikati in a meeting that a deal could be reached before the end of the month and before the U.S. elections. Mikati, speaking on Lebanese television, said the parties are doing everything they can and should do and that optimism remains, with a ceasefire expected in the next hours or days. Hochstein was set to travel to Tel Aviv with White House official Brett McGurk on Thursday.
Hours earlier, Qassem addressed the Lebanese and regional audience for the first time since his appointment as Hizbollá secretary-general. He said that if Israel decides to stop its aggression, Hezbollah would accept, but only under conditions it deems appropriate. Speaking in a televised pre‑recorded address from an undisclosed location, he added that Hezbollah would not plead for a ceasefire and would continue fighting for as long as necessary, asserting that the group retains the capacity to sustain the fight for months.
Public broadcaster Kan in Israel published a draft from Washington noting that Israel would withdraw its forces from the Lebanese border within the first week of a proposed 60‑day ceasefire. Unnamed officials told The New York Times that Tel Aviv is pressing for a design that would allow Hizbolláh several weeks to pull back before the Lebanese army could fill the vacuum. Lebanon’s forces are described as weak with little capacity to defend the border.
Two officials said Israel also seeks guarantees to invade Lebanon if Hizbolláh does not depart swiftly enough, while Beirut calls for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops. Beirut does not trust UN peacekeepers or the Lebanese army to hold Hizbolláh at bay in a renewed buffer zone along the border on the Lebanese side. The absence of a strong border defense has raised concerns about the ability of state security forces to manage the frontier under heavy pressure.
During nearly 13 months of cross‑border fighting, Hezbollah has argued that it will not halt rocket and drone launches until Tel Aviv agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza. This week, talks resumed and even Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el‑Sisi proposed a 48‑hour pause to begin a longer ceasefire. While Sisi expressed openness to a deal with Israel, a Hamas official told AFP that the group would reject any temporary ceasefire in Gaza and insisted on a permanent end to hostilities and the complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Evacuation Orders
Across the front lines, Israeli strikes have continued, reaching deep into Gaza and causing damage to key facilities such as the Kamal Adwan hospital complex in Beit Lahiya, where an adjacent warehouse storing recently received medical supplies was destroyed. Violence has also surged in Lebanon. On Wednesday, 19 people, including eight women, were killed in two towns in the Baalbek region. Israeli evacuation orders around Baalbek led many residents to flee bombarded areas. Israel also reported the death of five people in Metula, a border town, attributed to a Hizbolláh rocket attack.
On Thursday, Israeli authorities ordered the displacement of residents from about a dozen southern Lebanese towns, including the Rashidieh Palestinian refugee camp in Tyre. The United Nations has warned that nearly a quarter of Lebanon’s territory is under evacuation orders. More than 1.2 million people across the country have been displaced, and about half a million have left Lebanon by crossing the land border with Syria.