Life in the Mediterranean Levant shifted dramatically on October 7, with Lebanon bearing the heaviest impact. Across the southern border, daily clashes between Lebanese Hezbollah militias and the Israeli Army have endured for weeks, leaving communities shattered. Israeli bombardments claimed the lives of roughly 25 Lebanese civilians, including children and journalists, while at least 140 Lebanese fighters were reported killed. Hezbollah’s forces also suffered losses, and nine Israeli soldiers were killed as the fighting unfolded. After more than three months of conflict, the conflict’s intensity has kept the country on edge, but a notable shift appears to be taking shape in Lebanon: Hezbollah’s standing among various segments of society is changing.
Lebanon’s political landscape is deeply fragmented, recognizing 18 religious groups in its constitution. Yet amid this mosaic, militias have managed to amass new followers. A Washington Institute survey indicates an uptick in support for Hezbollah compared with a previous survey in November 2020. About 34% of Sunnis and 29% of Christians expressed favorable views of the party, though the strongest backing still comes from Shiites. In particular, a large portion of the population outside the capital retains a positive or very positive view of Hezbollah, reflecting a sense in the south that the group can offer protection against Israeli attacks. This sentiment is echoed by regional experts such as Laury Haytayan, a Lebanese analyst focusing on oil and gas in the Middle East and North Africa.
“He did something”
The southern region of Lebanon has long endured border-related clashes since the Hamas-Israel conflict escalated on October 7. Impressions of an ongoing struggle touch almost every day, with bombardments and exchanges between Iranian-backed militias and Jewish forces. The violence has stirred painful memories among thousands of Lebanese families living near the frontier, a base of support for Hezbollah in many quarters. There are around 82,000 people displaced by the attacks, according to the International Organization for Migration, and questions linger about whether this upheaval might undermine continued devotion to militias and political factions seen as responsible for ongoing conflict.
Analyst Laury Haytayan notes Hezbollah’s calculated approach to confrontations with Israel. In discussions with El Periódico de Catalunya, she observes that even amid threats of escalation, Hezbollah leaders have signaled restraint. The aim appears to be avoiding a full-scale invasion and preserving a territorial buffer that Israel seeks. Hassan Nasrallah’s public statements in recent times suggest a desire to avoid an outright war in Lebanon, a position that some scholars describe as prudent yet fragile. Joseph Daher, a Syrian academic and author of Hezbollah: The Political Economy of the Party of God, notes that while Hezbollah may claim decisive action, it is not necessarily pursuing broad involvement in the war.
Before the current conflict, Hezbollah’s legitimacy was already under strain. The organization originated during Lebanon’s civil war with a stated aim of resisting Israel and supporting Tehran’s regional interests. Over time, its overt objective of resisting Israeli power persisted, though the path it took to that goal shifted as regional dynamics evolved. Daher observes that support for Hezbollah has declined since 2006, with the Syrian civil war and the 2019 Lebanese uprising contributing to a more complex view of Hezbollah’s role in national life. The group remains a central player, yet public perceptions increasingly frame it as part of the broader political and economic crisis facing the country.
Economic crisis
Beyond shifts in national sentiment, Hezbollah’s strategy could shape the wider regional balance. Haytayan highlights how the maritime and political dynamics surrounding Israel and Lebanon have evolved, suggesting that any durable agreement would have to account for Hezbollah’s presence. The Lebanese analyst points out that Hezbollah has learned to operate within established political and economic norms, leveraging influence with international actors who seek stability in the region. The question moving forward is how such arrangements will influence the country’s governance and the perception of external powers that claim influence in Lebanon.
Lebanon continues to grapple with one of the world’s most severe economic crises, a situation the World Bank has described as among the worst since the mid-19th century. A Washington Institute poll reveals that a majority of Lebanese voters consider domestic political and economic reform to be more pressing than foreign policy concerns, underscoring a reluctance to become entangled in external conflicts. Domestic rivals to Hezbollah, such as the Lebanese Forces or Kataeb, remain influential in shaping the country’s trajectory. When tensions in the Palestinian issue rise, public opinion often unites against Israel; however, meaningful change regarding Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon remains challenging as the party has acquired regional reach and maintains cooperation with Hamas. These factors complicate efforts to redefine Lebanon’s domestic political landscape and economic strategy.