It has lingered on supermarket shelves for weeks in Lebanon, echoing shortages seen during earlier crises. The line between calm and tension is thin, and the rush is real. Overflowing baskets reveal a population accustomed to conflict and instability, yet they fear the worst hours of 2023. Lebanon is mired in an economic fiasco. Those who fail to see the end fear what could unfold as the struggle widens against Israel. Hezbollah fighters’ attacks in the south threaten to spill into other corners of the country, dragging Lebanon toward a deeper darkness. A Lebanese economist, Layal Mansur Ichrakieh, warned that the country lacks the logistical capacity to endure war in practice.
Already facing a deep depression and a multidimensional economic crisis, Lebanon has a banking sector largely collapsed. Citizens endure a stinging drop in the Lebanese pound, losing about 98% of its value, while inflation soars. Politically, the situation is a disaster. El Periódico de Cataluña, via Prensa Ibérica, cites a macroeconomist who specializes in dollarized and developing economies confirming that the Central Bank lacks a governor, a president, or a government. Since Hezbollah began firing rockets and launching attacks on Israel shortly after Hamas’ assault, war drums have not quieted. Ironically, he notes, Lebanon is not only too fragile to confront war, but too fragile to endure heavy rains.
Vulnerability tied to foreign decisions
Across the border, where United Nations forces maintain a presence, Israel has signaled it does not seek escalation. Much of its focus remains on operations in Gaza, including repeated bombardments of civilian neighborhoods, hospitals, and bakeries that have claimed thousands of Palestinian lives. The Lebanese people show little appetite for war. Foreign Minister Abdullah Bu Habib stated that Lebanon, including Hezbollah, does not want war and remains in regular contact with militias. He added that discussions with them suggest they will refrain from starting a conflict. Still, Hassan Nasrallah’s initial address also suggested restraint.
A sense of helplessness pervades the population. Whether war happens may hinge on Iran, a foreign decision rather than a local one, notes Mansour Ichrakieh. Lebanon does not want war, but Iran could become a target if it chooses to engage. The cedar country has suffered political mismanagement for a year and a half as leaders fail to form a stable executive. Since October last year, its ministerial and financial crises have escalated. The country has seen significant events over four years, a period World Bank researchers rank among the worst in the world, with roughly three quarters of people living below the poverty line.
Migration and the south’s shrinking population
The ongoing war and the resulting turmoil threaten Lebanon’s southern regions. At least 20,000 people have fled toward the north, according to the International Organization for Migration. Many southern areas grow emptier as Lebanese relocate to Beirut and nearby locales, says Mansour Ichrakieh. He adds that lax enforcement allows opportunists to exploit the displaced, especially in rural areas, driving rents to steep, unfair levels.
The war’s consequences are invariably tragic, and in Lebanon they threaten the nation’s very existence. The country is still recovering from the Beirut Port explosion, the coronavirus pandemic, and a refugee crisis that includes two million Syrians. Inflation hits record highs while the economy staggers. The displaced often lose jobs, creating ripple effects across small and large sectors. As Ichrakieh observes, the economic damage wrought by conflict can be irreversible. A decade of conflict since 1975 has left Lebanon with a reputation for instability, weak governance, and high risk for investment. Yet, above all, the loss of citizens provides a compelling reason to avoid a future war. The Lebanese people watch every move by Hezbollah and Israel closely, knowing that a single sudden action could bring condemnations or penalties. As families stretch their budgets to fill pantries, the ghosts of past crises haunt the cedar country.”