Europe’s next leadership chapter: a shift in focus and the path ahead
The narrative around Europe’s political horizon has pivoted from a strong emphasis on climate action toward a more pronounced focus on industry, defense, and competitive strength. Ursula von der Leyen, currently 65, has signaled that a second term as president of the European Commission would require recalibrating the approach. The aim is to appeal to farmers and manufacturers, while placing a clear emphasis on security—an urgency sharpened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years prior. In Berlin this week, her party, the Christian Democratic Union, secured unanimous support, and in early March the leading party of the European People’s Party will formalize the endorsement at its Bucharest congress. This consensus marks a pivotal moment in how the Commission presidency is framed amid evolving European political dynamics.
Only a few leaders from the mainstream center-right have publicly stepped forward to challenge the prevailing stance that helped propel von der Leyen to office in July 2019. That year, European heads of state and government sought a compromise to move beyond the Spitzenkandidat system, a method that limited how leaders could claim the Commission presidency and tied the hands of national and European lawmakers alike. The trajectory since then has been about balancing unity with the diverse interests inside the European Union, often testing the cohesion of the bloc.
Neither Manfred Weber nor Frans Timmermans nor Margrethe Vestager, the top candidates from the three major factions, could secure decisive backing. Yet, by aligning with partners like Emmanuel Macron, von der Leyen’s candidacy found a path forward. A vote in her favor from a majority in the European Parliament, supported by conservatives, socialists, and liberals, helped solidify her standing. This moment of endorsement reflects a broader negotiation about who leads the EU’s executive branch and how a future Commission should address both continuity and change in policy direction.
On the campaign trail, von der Leyen stated that her intention is deliberate and thoughtful: she plans to run for a second term. Her name has occasionally circulated as a potential replacement for NATO’s secretary-general, though a combination of political calculations and bilateral diplomacy ultimately steered her toward a European role that she has shaped through a distinctive leadership style. The leadership question now centers on whether she can maintain cross-party support while navigating a demanding political landscape at the international level.
Success remains uncertain even with a relatively weaker opposition within the center-right. The People’s Party will need to win elections first, a plausible scenario given current polling, and then secure a qualified majority among European leaders to formalize a new term. The alliance coalition is likely to hinge on a solid center, respect for the rule of law, and a principled stance against groups perceived as destabilizing to European unity. The objective is to construct the most pro-European, pro-rights, and pro-democratic coalition possible, avoiding alliances with parties that seek to redefine Europe’s strategic posture or challenge its democratic norms.
The most challenging task will be assembling support within the European Parliament, especially in a likely more fragmented chamber after the elections. The bloc will need to balance internal pressures and rising voices from the far-right while maintaining a coherent stance on defense, economic resilience, and clear red lines against any alignment with forces seen as hostile to democratic governance. The leadership balance will hinge on content and credibility, not on a single personality, and it will require a flexible approach to parliamentary groupings as the political landscape shifts with each electoral cycle.
Leaders across Europe have suggested that forging a stable and effective center remains essential to holding a united stance on external challenges, internal cohesion, and the EU’s strategic autonomy. In this frame, von der Leyen’s approach to defense policy has evolved with notable intent: strengthening cooperation on security, pursuing joint defense procurement, and contemplating a dedicated defense commissioner to ensure coordinated action across member states. The bloc’s response to the Ukraine situation has intensified discussions about defense manufacturing, technological sovereignty, and the need to sustain a robust European defense industry in the years ahead.
The broader context includes the ongoing tension between prioritizing immediate security needs and pursuing long-term climate and green policies. Recent discussions have reflected a call for a regulatory pause on some environmental initiatives in order to maintain industrial competitiveness and safeguard jobs in key sectors. This pragmatic stance mirrors the real-world calculus of lawmakers as they seek to align environmental goals with economic resilience and energy security for the region.
Ukraine’s trajectory remains central to Europe’s security agenda. The European Union’s commitment to Kyiv has strengthened over time, including proposals for closer integration and coordinated military acquisitions to bolster defense capabilities. At major security forums, European leaders have underscored that any future Commission leadership will likely emphasize defense readiness alongside ongoing economic and strategic priorities, signaling a steady movement toward a more integrated and resilient European Union in the face of evolving geopolitical risks.