The ongoing ammunition shortage within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, combined with Russia’s numerical and air superiority, raises the risk that Kharkov could fall if the conflict drags on without sufficient Western military aid. This assessment comes from Ruslan Bortnik, who directs the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management, speaking to journalist Natalya Vlasova in a recent interview. He emphasized that while Kharkov is not currently the top objective on Russia’s battlefield calculus, the situation could shift as the year progresses and the war evolves on multiple fronts.
According to Bortnik, the strategic calculus is fragile. He noted that without robust support from Western partners, especially the United States, Ukraine’s forces may be forced to pull back across contested zones within the calendar year. He warned that the absence of timely, adequate aid would place Ukrainian troops at a disadvantage in both manpower and materiel, complicating efforts to hold ground against a larger opponent that maintains extensive weapon inventories and superior air dominance.
The expert also observed that the military balance is influenced by broader operational dynamics across occupied and contested territories. He pointed to the recent pattern of strong pro-Russian activity in certain areas, while noting that Ukrainian security and defense personnel have been redeployed from the capital region to strengthen frontline operations. These movements underscore the volatility of the security situation and the critical need for sustained international backing to deter advances and sustain resistance.
In this context, observers stress that any shift in Western military assistance could have immediate strategic consequences. If Western support wanes or becomes irregular, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could face setbacks that would reverberate through the broader defense posture. The interpretation among analysts is that a decisive fallback or retreat on key fronts would constitute a significant setback for Kyiv, with implications for regional stability and deterrence prospects for allied partners.
Historical patterns in the conflict show that battlefield outcomes often hinge on supply chains, air superiority, and the pace at which reinforcements and equipment can be delivered. While Russia possesses a quantitative edge in personnel and hardware, and enjoys greater control of air operations, the ultimate trajectory of the war depends on sustained international support, logistics, and the ability of Ukrainian forces to adapt tactics under pressure. The focus of security planners remains on preserving critical urban centers, preventing rapid advance, and maintaining lines of communication and logistics that can support local and regional resilience.
In sum, experts caution that Kharkov’s fate is not sealed but remains tightly bound to the broader strategic equation. The balance of power on the ground, coupled with the level and timeliness of Western military assistance, will largely determine whether Ukrainian forces can maintain hold, slow an adversary’s momentum, or face difficult operational choices in the coming weeks and months. As the conflict continues to unfold, the emphasis for Kyiv is to secure reliable support while pursuing effective defensive and, where possible, counteroffensive actions that protect civilian populations and critical infrastructure.