Italians head to the polls this Sunday in what polls describe as a turning point for the country. The far-right party led by Giorgia Meloni is seen as capable of making history by becoming the first female prime minister, steering Italy toward the most right-leaning government since World War II ended.
The governing coalition includes the far-right League led by Matteo Salvini, the Brothers of Italy led by Meloni, and the conservative Forza Italia under Silvio Berlusconi. They arrive as clear favorites for what is expected to be a decisive victory. Polls show a lead of nearly 20 percentage points over Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party and its centre-left allies.
Salvini and Berlusconi have long stood linked to Russia, while Meloni and her partners have faced friction with Europe. The campaign, marked by Eurosceptic rhetoric and fears about constitutional changes without broad consensus, unfolded during a summer of intense political noise that failed to capture widespread engagement, with close to 40 percent of voters staying away.
the long day ahead
Around 51 million Italian voters will participate on a day that opens at 7:00 local time and closes at 23:00 local time. Exit polls will become available as ballot boxes are sealed and tallies are reported.
The election will determine 600 seats in the national parliament, with 400 deputies and 200 senators chosen. There are 4,193 candidates for the Chamber of Deputies and 2,152 for the Senate, reflecting reforms approved by referendum that changed the previous totals of 945 seats in total. In Sicily, voters will also decide the president and the regional parliament. These details are reported by the Italian interior ministry.
More than 2.7 million young people will cast ballots for the first time, and recent changes to Article 58 of the Constitution allow them to vote for both houses, expanding youth participation in national governance, according to official sources cited by the interior ministry.
Lombardy, with Milan as its capital, is currently the region with the largest voter base, counting about 7.5 million potential voters. Rome also has a very large electorate, while Rocca de’ Giorgi in the north stands out for its tiny local turnout, with only a handful of residents voting, according to the interior ministry data.
meloni becomes the clear favorite
The process of forming governing majorities involves complex negotiations among parties that rarely joined forces in recent years. On this occasion, the right appears united on paper, with Meloni positioned as the undisputed leader.
On the final day before polls close, polls published within the permitted period put Meloni’s party around 25 percent, marking a sharp rise since the 2018 elections when she played a pivotal role as the main opposition to Mario Draghi’s national unity government. This propelled the right toward a potential coalition strength of about 45 percent, according to contemporary surveys cited by Italian media and the interior ministry.
The Democratic Party sits in second place, roughly at 21.5 percent, while its bloc with smaller progressive forces hovers around 27 percent. The gap to the main rivals remains about 20 points. The Five Star Movement shows about 15 percent support, positioning itself as a key opposition voice, with the League at around 12 percent and Forza Italia near 8 percent.
A so-called third pole created by centrists and other minor forces trails at roughly 6.7 percent, underscoring the fragmented landscape ahead of the vote. Analysts emphasize how the electoral system, which mixes proportional representation with a majority element, shapes strategic coalitions and the possible paths to governance, as noted by observers and reflected in the electoral framework.
abstention and the mechanics of the system
Abstention and undecided voters are pivotal in shaping results. Current polling places abstention around 40 percent, a factor that could tip outcomes in ways that no single party can control. Still, most observers expect the right to fall short of an absolute majority this time.
The electoral system rewards coalitions in many scenarios. It is a mixed model where roughly 61 percent of seats are allocated proportionally based on votes, while about 37 percent follow a majority rule through single-member districts. The coalition, not the party with the most votes, secures the seats, with a small share reserved for noncitizen residents. These mechanics are repeatedly discussed by analysts following the election cycle.
Experts say that the right could maximize its advantage by securing strong results in single-member districts and capitalizing on a more fragmented left. If achieved, the coalition could reach a sizable portion of parliamentary representation, raising questions about constitutional amendments that would not require broad consent or a national referendum, a topic often debated in pundit and academic circles.