war times
Italy, a member of the G-7 and G-20, long stood as a bridge between Moscow and the rest of Europe. Yet under technocrat Mario Draghi, the country aligned more tightly with its allies, offering strong support to the Ukrainian government and earning a prominent voice on the European stage. Paris, Rome, and Berlin projected unity in the conflict with Russia, a stance reinforced by Draghi’s leadership. Yet his tenure ended amid questions about Italy’s future course and energy security, with debate about continuing the shift away from Russian gas. The path forward remains uncertain as the center-right coalition weighs its own approach to Moscow and the broader European project. The balance of influence within the coalition vis-a-vis Moscow continues to be a live issue, influencing how Italy positions itself in the European Union and in global energy diplomacy.
At the same time, the realignment of power extends to the broader strategy for Europe. The right wing and centrist factions have signaled that Europe should deepen defense and economic cooperation while keeping individual member states flexible on policy. Analysts note that the Euro-Atlantic anchor could grow stronger after the elections, even as internal debates about foreign policy and security evolve. The question remains whether Italy will pursue a unified stance or allow variations within the coalition to shape the country’s external posture.
Post-pandemic economy
Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, endured a brutal pandemic shock but has shown signs of recovery. The IMF and other forecasters have projected continued growth in the coming years as vaccination campaigns mature and domestic demand stabilizes. The government faces the usual tests of fiscal discipline, especially as Draghi leaves office and a new executive takes the helm to submit its plan to the European Commission. The challenge will be to maintain momentum while addressing structural issues that linger from the health crisis and the energy transition.
Analysts expect the new administration to maintain alignment with EU expectations and the recovery plan commitments. Italy carries a substantial loan and subsidy portfolio tied to EU recovery targets, and the government will need to demonstrate continued compliance with those terms. Any shift in policy or delay in reforms could trigger scrutiny from Brussels and investors alike, highlighting the tightrope between national priorities and EU obligations. The Franco-Italian axis remains influential, with Macron in particular reshaping the European financial rules agenda. The ongoing discussions over bilateral cooperation and the future of Europe’s budgetary framework continue to be watched closely by markets and policymakers alike.
foreign (poor) enemy
A challenging aspect of Rome’s diplomacy is the stance on immigration and border control. A more conservative shift inside the government could bring Matteo Salvini back to the forefront, potentially restoring a tougher line on migration. If Meloni strengthens her cooperation with Salvini, the administration could pursue stricter border policies while considering ways to support search and rescue operations and maritime patrols.
Election rhetoric has already spotlighted hardening positions on migration. Proposals include reaffirming border security and exploring non-EU centers for asylum processing as a way to manage flows. The emphasis appears to be on securing borders while debating the best legal and humanitarian frameworks for migrants and asylum seekers.
In this debate, Meloni and Salvini have also touched on the controversial idea of relocating certain asylum processes outside the EU. The discussions reflect broader concerns about sovereignty, resource constraints, and how to balance humanitarian obligations with national interests.
LGBT rights and abortion
The rise of a right-wing coalition raises questions about Europe’s social framework and how Italy’s policies align with Brussels on human rights. Meloni’s stance on LGBTQ rights has sparked debate within Italy and across the continent, especially as other EU states face their own legal challenges. Critics warn that narrowing the field of rights could strain relations with EU institutions and with countries that have led on equality issues.
Italy’s history of abortion legislation remains a touchstone in these discussions. The country legalized abortion in 1978, but ongoing debates about access and implementation continue to surface as part of the broader dialogue on civil liberties. The alliance in government must navigate these sensitive issues while addressing public opinion and the existing medical infrastructure. The political dialogue also touches on how regions and healthcare providers manage access to reproductive services.