Prices for farm products have surged, and olive oil in Italy follows this trend closely. A notable example is the premium Italian extra virgin olive oil, whose price has risen by about half over the past year.
The drivers behind these increases mirror what’s been seen in neighboring markets, with extra virgin olive oil facing sharp pressure from climate and harvest dynamics. In Italy, severe drought and extreme heat reduced last year’s harvest, causing a production slowdown that dropped year-over-year output by roughly 37 percent. As the market moves through these months, wholesale prices have climbed from around 4 euros per liter a year ago to more than 8 euros per liter now. The downstream effect is a consumer price in the vicinity of 10 euros per liter in many outlets.
Famine and speculation also surround the famed Italian extra virgin olive oil
Rising demand and speculative trading in the olive oil market have begun to resemble a financial market at times. The export of this oil to international buyers, especially the United States, Germany, and France, has grown as buyers seek premium brands and status symbols. Analysts have emphasized that the current price behavior carries a financial-market flavor, with fluctuating prices driven as much by sentiment and availability as by physical supply. This perspective has been highlighted on analytical platforms such as Teatro Naturale, where experts like Alberto Grimelli and Marcello Scorcia have discussed the new price dynamics.
structural problems
Additional conclusions from Grimelli and Scorcia point to a tighter future for olive oil supply. They warned that not everyone will be able to secure ample oil in the coming months. Andrea Carrassi, the managing director of the Italian Olive Oil Industry Association, has raised a similar alarm about production shortfalls. He noted that the industry could face a risk of insufficient supply, given the current trajectory and the season’s weather patterns.
Market observers also highlight that the data available this year still suggests limited gains in production, with reserves drawn down from previous years. The forecast hints at potential price stabilization only if the next harvest proves stronger. Anna Cane, president of FOOI, an interprofessional body for olive oil and table olives, has suggested that any improvement in harvest prospects could temper prices later in the year, but the road ahead remains uncertain.
Beyond the numbers, a longer historical view underscores how production conditions have shifted. Italy has seen a persistent decline in the use of extra virgin olive oil over the past ten years, a trend that has persisted since production peaked around half a million tons and one year. The latest analyses from the Nomisma study center point to structural factors that reinforce this trajectory. Notably, roughly 42 percent of producing companies operate with less than two hectares of olive groves, which limits both scale and resilience in the face of climate shocks.