Olive oil sits at the heart of the Mediterranean diet, a staple celebrated for flavor and versatility. Recently, it has sparked attention in supermarkets and online chatter about shifting prices. With tempting discounts on shelves and rumors of rising costs ahead, it makes sense to approach a shopping cart with care when choosing oil bottles for the pantry.
Though olive oil remains a prized product, rushing a purchase can breed misgivings. Department stores have been trimming olive oil prices across ranges—from extra virgin to the more common varieties—creating both opportunity and confusion for shoppers.
So why all the warning signs about olive oil purchases? The answer lies in harvest forecasts for the next season, which point to a tighter supply. Forecasts for the 2023 harvest indicate a limited overall production, around 660,000 tons. Autumn rains helped improve conditions, but the total output is not expected to be abundant. This scarcity tends to tighten the market and influence price movements.
The reason for caution is demand sensitivity. Olive oil demand tends to be price elastic, meaning that when prices rise, many consumers shift to more affordable options such as sunflower oil or other cooking oils. This behavior can moderate price increases and alter buying patterns across households.
Price elasticity of demand
End-of-year data from the PoolRed price observatory show that prices paid by major bottlers to producers for olive oil in 2022 largely stayed below five euros per liter. It is unlikely that farmers or mills would set steep origin prices in 2023, because the value chain would struggle to absorb those costs without passing them on to the final consumer. This dynamic helps explain why sudden price spikes are uncommon in the short term, even when production forecasts are tight.
Unlike many other commodities, olive oil can change in quality over time due to oxidation after opening. With Spanish households typically consuming around 20 liters of olive oil each year, large-volume purchases may not always be the most economical choice for many families. Fresh oil availability becomes a consideration as harvest season approaches, underscoring the importance of planning and storage strategy.
The 2023 harvest season is approaching, which means fresh oil will soon reach markets. Shoppers are wise to assess actual needs and rotation of consumption before stocking up. Opting for smaller packaging can align better with daily usage for most households, helping avoid waste and unnecessary expense.
Even though olive oil remains a culinary treasure, there is no need to panic about rumors of high prices. Practical planning and mindful purchasing—centered on real consumption patterns—can keep costs in check and prevent unneeded purchases that do not fit household budgets. In many cases, gradual, regular buying aligned with weekly menus proves more economical and reliable than bulk buys that outpace use. This approach also supports a steady supply for families who rely on olive oil as a primary ingredient in everyday cooking. [citation needed: official market data and forecasts]