Polls point to a Giorgia Meloni victory in the parliamentary election. The 45-year-old leader from Rome heads the Brothers of Italy, a populist and far-right party. If she wins, she could become the first woman to lead the third largest economy in the European Union. The elections drew intense attention in European capitals and sparked concern in Brussels. Meloni warned at a rally in Milan that if she wins, Europe’s comfortable status may be challenged. Analysts agree that a Meloni government would not pursue radical breaks with Brussels, yet it would likely press for policies that put national interests first and shape a tense relationship with European institutions.
A far-right government with the Brothers of Italy at its core is expected to shrink Italys influence in the EU and heighten tensions in relations. Yet analysts note that Italy would not become a new Poland or Hungary, and the coalition program suggests that Marine Le Pen could adopt a less confrontational stance toward the EU and NATO than some expect. Still, questions linger about how long any government rooted in far-right leadership might stay in power, given internal frictions among coalition partners. Matteo Salvini of the League and Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia could influence a power balance that might lead to challenges against a ruling coalition.
Experts suggest that without a sustained social media push that frames national interests as a priority, Meloni may shift toward a more conventional approach to Europe once in office. A recent analysis indicated that Europe would need to adapt to a government seen as leaning toward Italian dominance, while still maintaining commitments to the European project. Unlike the 2018 campaign, there is no strong push from an Italian faction advocating leaving the European Union. The country is navigating a recovery plan and bailout funds that will play a central role in the next six years as Italy manages pandemic aftermath and economic rebuilding.
In the footsteps of Poland and Hungary
The question of governance does not imply a withdrawal from the euro or a collapse of the EU. Meloni’s ties to Hungary’s Viktor Orban and to Poland’s Law and Justice, along with collaboration with Vox in the European Conservatives and Reformists group, raise concerns about a possible anti Brussels bloc in the European Parliament. Officials stress vigilance as elections approach, noting Italy’s pivotal role within the EU. Critics warn about a potential erosion of collective rights and increased scrutiny of immigration policies as part of the broader political shift.
Some observers caution that a Meloni victory could surface worries among opponents who fear a drift toward authoritarian rhetoric. There is talk of a strong allegiance with historical figures and a political stance that could unsettle European partners. Yet supporters argue that Italy would remain a central force within Europe while pursuing reforms aligned with its national priorities. The European scene is watching closely to see how Italy collaborates with partners on key issues.
Immigration policy and civil rights are also major talking points as coalition partners push for changes in asylum rules and visa procedures. Debates include how sanctions on Hungary and Poland are handled and whether measures requiring unanimous consent might shift toward majority voting to avoid gridlock. There is concern about the potential impact on the euro area’s stability given Italy’s public debt levels, which hover around high percentages of GDP.
All three coalition parties have signaled a willingness to revisit aspects of the Italian bailout framework to respond to the energy price surge and market conditions. Meloni has suggested pursuing fiscally responsible steps similar to those of Mario Draghi, while remaining open about tax relief and public spending. Continuing ties with NATO and support for Ukraine are seen as important anchors, even as some coalition members push for a more independent economic stance. The overall balance will shape how Italy negotiates relations with Brussels and contributes to political dynamics across the European Union.