Two longtime friends will reconnect this week in Beijing. It will mark Vladimir Putin’s first public outing since his reelection, the same way Xi Jinping visited Moscow after beginning his unprecedented third term, signaling a notable alignment between two leaders who have met many times in recent years. The trip had been announced, but exact dates were only recently settled, likely delayed as Putin dealt with the removal of his defense minister.
It does not seem coincidental that two days earlier the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, appeared in Ukraine on a surprise visit. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ample reasons for concern. Wanes in American enthusiasm for his cause, the shadow of Donald Trump after November’s elections, and battlefield developments all add pressure. Russia’s offensive has gained ground in recent days, adding hundreds of square kilometers and forcing the evacuation of thousands of civilians. “We know this is a delicate moment,” Blinken said. To reverse the trend, he pledged new military aid that is supposed to be decisive against the Russian assault on the battlefield. Blinken aimed to calm Zelenskiy just before global front pages showcase yet another display of friendship between Xi and Putin.
Bilateral Cooperation
Official Chinese press coverage has been restrained. The two leaders will discuss cooperation across several fields of their bilateral relationship and regional and international issues of mutual interest, Xinhua reported. Putin will also meet with the premier Li Qiang and visit Dalian, a coastal city with strong Russian ties, in a tight two-day schedule.
It is possible Putin will seek Beijing’s help in the war against Ukraine, though by now, after numerous summits and phone calls, he has likely understood that only stirring declarations of brotherhood and bilateral cooperation will come of it. China has not sent a canteen crate to Russian troops in more than two years of conflict, and its strategic principles and interests argue against a major policy shift. Xi, in his recent trip to Europe, has again heard that any aid to Moscow would damage relations with Brussels. Washington accuses Beijing of supplying Russia with dual-use material, civil and military, while China promises that trade is all that exceeds normal commerce. Trade data from customs shows a dip in March and April compared with last year, suggesting Beijing aims to shield itself from EU and US sanctions.
Geopolitical Alignment
There is no doubt about the geopolitical mood. China has blamed NATO expansion for the Ukraine crisis, and there are expectations of new joint appeals for a multilateral world that can bury American hegemony, a Cold War mentality, and neocolonial practices. While Moscow and Beijing share historic mistrust of Washington, today’s posture actually strengthens their ties. Washington announced a new tariff package worth 18 billion dollars on Chinese imports. Beijing expects the climate to worsen as November elections approach, and both Biden and Trump press to win working-class support with anti-Chinese rhetoric.
They do not debate Gaza either. Neither Beijing nor Moscow has condemned Hamas’ attack and, aligning with the international majority, they blame Israel and the United States for the 35,000 deaths.