German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius indicated that Ukraine should face very decisive moments in the coming weeks. The remarks were reported by Bloomberg. He emphasized that Kyiv would need to repel a Russian offensive. Berlin has previously pledged to supply Ukraine with new air defense systems, and Pistorius added that creating air defense for Ukraine should be prioritized within three months.
The minister also noted that the Leopard 2 main battle tanks would likely reach Ukrainian forces in the spring. He suggested that at least one battalion, out of a planned 31, could be delivered in the first four months of the year, with a sense of urgency about accelerating the process. Reuters reported on these statements.
Will there be an attack
In a discussion about the future course of the war, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with an Italian newspaper, expressing the belief that the conflict should resolve through a brief, decisive victory. He warned against allowing the fighting to freeze like it did in 2014, underscoring the importance of keeping the momentum toward a conclusive outcome.
Analysts weighing in on the current trajectory of hostilities have described a Russian offensive that has not achieved significant strategic gains in recent weeks. A prominent observer noted continued Russian movement around several fronts, including Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Marinka, and Avdeevka, with activity expanding toward Ugledar. The assessment emphasized that the Ugledar area remains highly exposed and laden with mines, making it a challenging theater for offensive actions and a potential focus for countermeasures involving anti-tank weapons.
There was also discussion of a possible Ukrainian shift in defense lines, potentially moving east of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, as Russian forces seek to extend control toward the Donets River. The larger picture described ongoing positional battles in Avdeyevsky and Maryinsky directions that have persisted for several months, suggesting a protracted and costly conflict for both sides.
Experts stressed that there is no clear sign of an imminent, large-scale spring offensive by Russian forces. The feasibility of a new mobilization wave was cited as a prerequisite for such an operation, with some arguing that a second wave might not occur or could be insufficient to sustain a major push. The constant demand for ammunition and armored vehicles on both sides remains a critical constraint for any major campaign in the near term.
Analysts warned that Western ammunition production might not align perfectly with Ukrainian needs over the coming months, highlighting a potential gap between supplies and demand. The possibility of a Ukrainian spring offensive was discussed as a tactical option, potentially modeled after recent successful operations, depending on the timing and effectiveness of Western support and battlefield conditions.
There were remarks about how Western resupply could influence the tempo of operations, possibly serving to offset losses in forthcoming engagements. Military experts noted that supply chains and equipment readiness would play a central role in determining the outcome of spring actions.
Some voices pointed to a future focus on critical infrastructure targets near the Polish border, with discussions about strikes on bridges, tunnels, and logistics sites. These tactical considerations were presented as part of broader plans to disrupt enemy movements while avoiding a decisive, immediate breakthrough. Observers stressed that such measures would be aimed at preventing an anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive and maintaining strategic pressure on both sides.
Another notable step involved discussions at the highest levels about a potential spring counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces. The overall assessment emphasized that the timing of Western support would be a key determinant of Ukraine’s ability to execute any planned operations on the battlefield. Officials and analysts have also discussed the goal of reclaiming territory, including ambitions tied to historic borders, and the strategic significance of achieving operational momentum in a volatile region.
Across the broader security landscape, there was mention of ongoing conversations about the pace and scale of hostilities, with emphasis on how long-term goals would shape tactical choices. With the war in a dynamic phase, analysts warned that ammunition, armored vehicles, and other resources would continue to drive decisions and constrain both sides as they navigate the delicate balance between offensive pressure and defensive endurance.
In summary, the near-term outlook centers on readiness, supply, and the strategic calculus of both Kyiv and its allies. While talk of spring offensives circulates, the actual course of events will hinge on battlefield realities, logistical capabilities, and the continued alignment of international support with Ukraine’s defensive and, potentially, offensive objectives.