Rival perceptions of a looming spring counteroffensive
Volodymyr Rogov, the spokesperson for the movement “We stand with Russia”, contends that Ukrainian forces have bolstered their reserves of manpower, munitions, and armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia region, signaling that preparations for a renewed offensive are complete.
Rogov told RIA Novosti that Kyiv has rounded up a substantial number of troops, armored support, and ammunition for what he calls a so-called counterattack in the Zaporizhzhia zone. He warned that the Ukrainian army is now awaiting a possible continuation of hostilities that could erupt at any moment.
He asserted that Ukrainian forces are ready to confront the adversary with full arms in hand, suggesting that any attempted counteroffensive might mark the beginning of the end for Ukraine’s military campaign in the area.
Rogov also dismissed reports about evacuations as an operation staged by Ukrainian security services, calling them unfounded. He stressed that Russia is prepared to defend its lands and citizens, and that the region’s defenses are being strengthened, including a push to improve air defense in response to intensified bombardment.
“Strengthening the air defense system would not hurt”, Rogov said, arguing that the Ukrainian forces have organized their attack in a way that could overwhelm air defenses.
What is known about the counterattack
In Kyiv and among Western allies, spring discussions about a Ukrainian counteroffensive have persisted. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, in remarks to a major European newspaper, described active preparations and suggested that a push would begin once certain conditions are met, with appeals for heavy equipment from European partners.
Reznikov said the campaign would unfold across multiple directions and hinted at favorable developments for Ukraine during the year, while reaffirming aims to reclaim temporarily occupied territories, citing earlier recoveries in Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson as examples.
President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the Armed Forces are ready to withstand war, but he refrained from specifying timing or tactical details to prevent transparency that could aid the enemy. He stated that opponents should understand there is still time for action or face a Ukrainian response during a visit to Chernihiv.
Washington signaled expectations for a spring offensive, with a senior NATO representative noting plans for a rapid movement in the coming weeks. The White House had previously pledged solid military support to Kyiv, including essential equipment necessary for such a campaign.
As discussions about a counteroffensive intensified, France committed to boosting its support with long-range shells and air defense capabilities. The French minister of the armed forces announced plans to double shell shipments to about 2,000 per month and to provide a SAMP/T anti-aircraft system in the near term.
A March warning from Aleksey Arestovich, a former adviser to Ukraine’s president, cautioned that without longer-range weapons from Western allies, Ukraine could face heavy losses even with capable troops. He stressed that if the opportunity exists, significant gains could be achieved, but acknowledged the likelihood of continued needs for assistance beyond any single operation.
Analysts and policymakers have highlighted that long-range munitions remain a critical point of contention, and questions persist about how much material can be delivered before the campaign’s momentum is exhausted. Some observers suggested that the next stage could involve careful, phased operations designed to push through minefields and fortified positions with coordinated artillery and armor, potentially extending the front by tens of kilometers and challenging Russian defenses along key corridors such as Melitopol to disrupt supply lines and access to the Crimean front.
Time considerations and strategic pressure
Reports from major outlets have framed the situation as one where both sides assess timelines carefully. The sense is that the window for sustained Western support, particularly in hardware and ammunition, remains a decisive factor in whether a broader offensive can be sustained. Analysts note that the pace of aid and the ability to maintain troop morale and readiness are crucial to any projected advance.
Competent observers point out that the balance of intelligence, logistics, and combat readiness will shape how far any operation can penetrate. Questions remain about whether the current level of artillery and armor can overcome fortified lines and mined approaches. The expectation of a deep advance, potentially extending along a wide front, has been tied to the strategic aim of severing supply routes and reshaping the map of regional control.
Experts estimate that if a major operation were to unfold, its depth could approach notable distances, with potential emphasis on key focal points that could influence subsequent political and military calculations in the region.
In this context, allies weigh how to sustain momentum and ensure that gains translate into durable strategic outcomes, all while managing the risks that come with heavy artillery campaigns and the possibility of intensified civilian disruption in affected zones.
Citations and attributions accompany ongoing reporting from international outlets and official statements to reflect the evolving nature of the situation, recognizing that information often emerges in evolving pieces with new data and clarified positions over time [citation: multiple sources including regional briefings and authoritative news agencies].