Lula da Silva appears to extend his lead as campaigns move toward a pivotal vote. Bolsonaro has fired another broadside against the electoral system, intensifying tensions ahead of the Sunday runoff. The two candidates are slated for a follow-up debate at O Globo’s studios on Friday evening. Public sentiment remains firmly in Lula’s favor, with polls showing that a large majority feel confident about the choice they will make. Only a rare shift in mood could alter the trajectory at this stage. Recent estimates from Datafolha place Lula ahead with about 49% support on Sunday, while Bolsonaro trails at roughly 44%. When blank and invalid ballots are included, the undecided share sits near 7%, with valid votes translating to Lula around 53% and Bolsonaro around 47%. The gap narrowed slightly from 52% to 48% in the prior week.
Analysts identify at least two factors behind Bolsonaro’s stagnation. One controversy centers on a former far-right MP accused of firing a rifle 20 times and throwing two grenades at a police vehicle, which appears to have unsettled some voters. Additionally, media analysis has highlighted economic policy. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes signaled a stance aimed at keeping wages from lagging behind inflation, a move that drew sharp criticism across social networks and among campaign observers.
new scene
In recent hours, influential local voices have expressed support for Lula. Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso urged Brazilians to consider how their choices could improve daily life, while reflecting on past Democratic struggles with Lula during the 1980s. Retired president José Sarney offered backing for Lula, underscoring that voters will decide between the path of democratic restoration and an alternative. Pope Francis, though cautious, suggested a nuanced stance, encouraging voters to reject extremes. A group of Catholic bishops echoed a call for thoughtful, conscious voting, warning there is little room for neutrality when choosing between two distinct futures for Brazil. The bishops urged the public to weigh democratic implications alongside any potential authoritarian risks.
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— Fernando Henrique Cardoso (@FHC) October 27, 2022
Peace to the markets
In response, Lula’s team has worked to outline a credible economic program designed to reassure markets and supporters alike. A commitment to responsible fiscal policy, including multi-year planning, would be paired with clear, realistic rules addressing the social emergency and reigniting both public and private investment. The plan, summarized in the public document titled Letter for the Brazil of Tomorrow, lays out thirteen priority points. Lula has signaled that, similar to his governments from 2003 to 2011, the state will play a leading role alongside private enterprise. Public investment in services, infrastructure, and strategic natural resources would be supported by state banks and major state-owned enterprises such as Petrobras, with cooperation, shared prosperity, and prudent public finance at the core of the agenda. The underlying message is a return to economic momentum and growth that can sustain social progress.
Polls in recent days have brought a measure of calm to Lula’s campaign strategy. The campaign soundtrack, currently circulating, aims to heighten a sense of optimism, featuring performers such as Luiza Sonza, Caetano Veloso, and Sandra de Sá.
Bolsonaro’s reaction
Bolsonaro again cast doubt on the integrity of the contest and claimed there was a conspiracy by radio stations in the northeast, where Lula enjoyed strong support, alleging that his rivals were not allowed the same level of free publicity. The campaign team called for parity in media exposure, but the Supreme Electoral Court rejected the claim. A column noted that the campaign appears to keep one eye on the ballot and another on power shifts. It was clear that Bolsonaro would be unlikely to accept any outcome that did not align with his expectations. Support from certain business leaders and workers urged to vote for Bolsonaro raised concerns about campaign pressures. A major national daily reported a sharp rise in complaints about electoral harassment between the first and second rounds. Critics warned that such practices exploit workers in vulnerable positions who may feel obligated to participate in political activity. Indigenous groups in various regions have also faced targeted campaigns as efforts to sway votes continue.
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