Twenty seven European Union members reached a political accord on Tuesday to curb gas use during a potentially severe winter. The plan seeks a voluntary overall cut of 15 percent in mainland consumption, with emergency thresholds allowing some countries to set different targets. While the goal is a uniform reduction, certain exceptions permit Spain to aim for a 7 percent decrease. A well-known think tank and other observers outside the EU have highlighted the nations most likely to seek relief from obligations, though that does not guarantee any reduction will occur in every case.
Europe’s gas-saving plan: the keys to what some call the Iberian exception
1. Cyprus, Ireland and Malta
The first set of exemptions covers islands affected by energy isolation. Ireland, Cyprus and Malta are not connected to the continental energy network and cannot access shared surplus demand. The Energy Commissioner noted that these countries will voluntarily curb their consumption, relying on their unique circumstances as part of the overall plan.
2. Baltic States
The next exemption applies to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Their electricity grids are not fully linked to the wider European system and they depend heavily on gas for power generation. Had Russia cut their electricity connections, gas would have been needed to stabilize the grid. They do not currently require this exception, having already reduced demand, but they retain the option if circumstances change, according to the Energy Commissioner.
3. Croatia, France, Portugal and Spain
These four nations may benefit from a third set of allowances. They can adjust their demand-reduction commitments based on their capacity to reroute gas through limited interconnections, other member-state export infrastructure, or LNG facilities. Spain has publicly stated it will voluntarily cut demand by 7 percent under this provision.
4. Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland
Another possible exemption concerns the filling of underground gas storage. If a country already surpasses the targets set by the European Commission, it could be allowed to reduce its demand less. Bruegel notes that storage capacity stood at about 80 percent by November 1. The Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland are identified as the states best suited for this approach.
Current storage figures show the Czech Republic around 78 percent, Denmark about 86 percent, and Poland near 99 percent. Storage capacity varies widely between countries, with Germany holding about 245 TWh, Italy around 194 TWh, and France about 131 TWh. Spain sits at roughly 35.1 TWh and Denmark at 9.3 TWh in storage capacity.
5. Germany and other countries
The fifth category is the broadest and focuses on critical industry. Gas remains essential for manufacturing in several sectors, making this exemption particularly important. Bruegel identifies Germany as a key case because of its large industrial base, though estimates remain uncertain. An independent assessment from E3G suggests that about half of industrial gas use occurs in three countries: Denmark, France and Italy, with Spain following closely behind in the share of industrial consumption.
6. Bulgaria, Greece, Poland and Slovakia
The sixth group includes Bulgaria, Greece, Poland and Slovakia, which Bruegel notes may request a reduction in gas use due to rising electricity demand. This shift represented more than 8 percent last year compared with the previous five years. E3G lists a different trio where gas use in power generation exceeds 50 percent. In Spain, Denmark and Italy roughly half of gas consumption occurs in electricity production, while the rest powers households and small businesses. Spain has recently seen an uptick in combined-cycle gas usage, lifting its share of total gas demand to around 40 percent of the mix.
Overall, the plan aims to balance shared responsibility with national realities, encouraging voluntary reductions where feasible and granting targeted allowances where circumstances demand flexibility. Analysts emphasize that the effectiveness of any exemption depends on ongoing data, monitoring, and transparent reporting by each member state, ensuring energy security remains a common objective across the union.