Twenty seven European Union countries reached a political agreement on Tuesday aimed at saving gas during a harsh winter. The plan seeks to reduce gas consumption by 15 percent on the mainland, mainly on a voluntary basis, with an emergency level if needed. While the overall target is to cut demand, some exceptions exist that allow Spain to reduce its consumption by only 7 percent. A think tank briefing notes that several other member states may seek relief from their obligations, though the position of Bruegel is that this does not guarantee there will be no reductions in any case.
Europe’s gas-saving plan: the keys to the new Iberian exception
1. Cyprus, Ireland and Malta
The first set of exemptions involves islands on the edge of the continental energy network. Ireland, Cyprus and Malta are cut off from the main European system, leaving them with limited means to share excess demand. The energy commissioner explained that these three countries have confirmed they will take voluntary steps to curb consumption.
2. Baltic States
The second exemption concerns Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Their electricity grids are not wired into the European system but connect to Russia, and they rely on gas to generate power. If Russia had cut them off, they would have faced the need to rely on gas to stabilize the grid. They do not require this derogation at present and have already reduced demand, though the option remains if conditions change, according to the energy commissioner Kadri Simson.
3. Croatia, France, Portugal and Spain
These four countries may benefit from the third exemption, allowing adjustments to demand reduction obligations based on actual capacity and interconnections. They possess limited intermediate links but maintain export opportunities or infrastructure to divert gas to other member states. In the case of Spain, it has publicly announced agreement to voluntarily reduce its demand by seven percent.
4. Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland
Another potential exemption relates to underground gas storage capacity. The idea is to allow slightly less stringent reductions for countries that fill storage beyond specific targets set by the European Commission. As of now, Bruegel highlights that the Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland are the only states likely to fit this proposition. Current storage figures show the Czech Republic around 78 percent, Denmark around 86 percent, and Poland near 99 percent. The capacity gaps among member states are substantial. Germany, Italy and France hold large futures, while Spain and Denmark operate with much smaller storage bases.
Germany is noted for its heavy industrial gas use, which complicates blanket reductions. Bruegel calls Germany a critical case, given the industrial base, though other analyses suggest the share of gas used in industry varies by country. A study from E3G indicates that roughly half of industrial gas use occurs in three major economies: Denmark, France and Italy, with Spain following closely.
5. Germany and other countries
This sixth category is broad and centers on critical industry. The plan assumes high gas needs for production in several sectors. Analysts from Bruegel point to Germany as a key example, while energy researchers note that the exact impact will depend on industry structure and energy policies. Other assessments emphasize that a handful of nations will bear a larger burden due to their industrial profiles and power-generation mix.
6. Bulgaria, Greece, Poland and Slovakia
The final set of potential exemptions covers Bulgaria, Greece, Poland and Slovakia, where gas demand growth for electricity generation rose by more than eight percent last year compared with the previous five. Different analyses place the focus on Spain, Denmark and Italy as also contributing significantly to gas-fired electricity production.
In Spain, natural gas demand has historically accounted for about 60 percent of electricity generation, with the remaining 40 percent split between other generation sources and households plus small and medium enterprises. Recent months have shown a shift, with combined cycles increasing gas use to roughly 70 percent of total demand in the sector.