Every cubic meter of gas saved matters now because reducing consumption this summer strengthens the energy buffer for the next cold season. In the European Commission’s contingency plan, a proposal is expected to be adopted this Wednesday to immediately limit gas use, aiming to avoid heavier rationing across the European Union during the winter. The dependence on Russian supply has triggered alarms, and the final draft calls on public authorities, consumers, households, public buildings, and energy providers to participate, highlighting that the EU remains exposed and must anticipate risks with a more proactive stance.
The Community Manager has embarked on a voluntary reduction of gas consumption. The plan estimates costs tied to final negotiations within the brokers’ framework, with a typical range of 5% to 15% for at least eight months. If conditions deteriorate in the coming weeks or months or in the event of an emergency in at least two member states, the Commission proposes to enact binding measures. Initially, Member States may voluntarily apply the necessary reductions, but a binding target could be activated to curb gas demand if the situation worsens and an EU alert is triggered under the emergency framework. National emergency plans will be updated by twenty-seven to map out mitigation steps until the end of September.
Organizations such as the National Energy Agency have already warned that the EU may need to cut consumption by 12,000 million cubic meters over the next three months. Only through such reductions could underground deposits be replenished to reach 80% of reserves by November, a target set by European legislation this year (90% from winter 2023). The outcome depends on Gazprom’s decision to reopen Nord Stream 1, which has faced routine maintenance and reduced flows; last year, gas deliveries to Germany were cut by about 60% in July. The first half of 2022 did not permit full targets to be reached if shipments were completely halted.
Insufficient liquefied gas
While diversification and liquefied natural gas imports from non-Russian sources have risen this year through deals with the United States, Norway, Israel, and Azerbaijan, those shipments alone will not fully compensate for losses this Monday. The loss of Russian gas partially or wholly affects twelve EU countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Finland, with experts warning of a potentially harsh winter and no obvious signs of rapid improvement in conditions.
Brussels officials describe planning for the winter as a worst-case scenario. A spokesman stated that contingency work is built around the possibility of Gazprom’s complete shutdown. By 17 July, storage levels across 18 European countries hovered just above 64%, and simulations suggest storage could range from 65% to 71% at the season’s start.
In Bulgaria, among the first to experience supply cuts for noncompliance with Russia’s demands, reserves are down significantly, with similar trends seen in Croatia, Hungary, and Latvia. Conversely, capacity is at or near full in Portugal, Poland, and other nations such as Sweden, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Spain. The picture shows a patchwork of resilience and vulnerability across the region, underscoring uneven exposure to supply disruptions.
Experts note that even though the EU has reduced its dependence on Russia from roughly 40% to around 20%, the risk remains that Moscow could shut off gas at any moment. The ability to diversify in the short term, the role of gas in the energy mix, and the impact on industrial production will influence how deeply the bloc feels the shock. If no timely actions are taken, the GDP could suffer a marked decline. The International Monetary Fund has warned that a complete supply cut could reduce Russia’s GDP by 3% to 6%, while Brussels estimates a broader impact of 0.6% to 1% of EU GDP, potentially higher in a colder winter and possibly triggering wider economic turmoil without prompt measures.
Measures to be applied
Utilities and essential services such as hospitals and critical infrastructure are designated as protected customers and should remain operational during outages. The Commission has proposed keeping air conditioning in summer and heating in public buildings during winter, while encouraging businesses to pivot fuels as a cost-saving measure with national subsidies to support the change. In addition, the plan contemplates temporarily allowing coal-fired plants to generate electricity and extending the life of some nuclear facilities. It also includes auctions to spur energy-saving measures in non-critical production facilities, compensations for industrial customers, and guidelines for distributing gas during emergencies between sectors. A mechanism to identify and mitigate cross-border supply chain impacts is part of the package, along with how to allocate scarce gas resources during emergency conditions across twenty-seven member states, all designed to keep essential services breathing without crippling industry.