Europe is moving into winter with a plan that foresees less dependence on Russian gas than in the past. European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton stated on 20 July that preparations are underway to weather the season without Russian supplies.
He explained the stance clearly: the bloc intends to prepare for winter without Russian gas. To endure the current winter and the coming one, EU nations may keep some nuclear or coal plants running beyond typical timelines, ensuring power reliability during the transition.
These remarks followed reports from Canada about a Siemens turbine linked to Nord Stream 1. The turbine, undergoing repairs, faced obstacles returning to Gazprom due to sanctions. Nord Stream 1 is currently undergoing scheduled maintenance, with fuel deliveries halted until at least 21 July. Previously, pumping through the pipeline was reduced by 40%.
Ottawa had announced the shipment of a turbine to Germany to help keep gas flowing, bypassing its sanctions. Gazprom, for its part, said it had not received official documentation from Siemens authorizing turbine supply to the Portovaya compressor station, noting that turbine rotation and warranty issues for other units directly impact Nord Stream 1’s flow.
Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, affirmed that the turbine is en route, will arrive on time, and that Russia has no reason to halt gas deliveries tied to this matter.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on 19 July that Gazprom would continue meeting its obligations, assuring foreign buyers that there is no need for concern about fuel delivery.
The idea is not new
The move to reduce Russian gas dependence has long been part of Europe’s strategy. The topic gained momentum well before the Ukraine conflict and the subsequent sanctions. Brussels began discussing a gradual shift away from Russian gas during 2020 and 2021, aligning with an agenda centered on green energy and a zero-carbon footprint by 2050.
Even Germany, often seen as the bloc’s most dynamic economy, has acknowledged that a complete elimination of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may be unattainable. The cost and variability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, complicate a full transition. Before leaving, former Chancellor Angela Merkel noted that Germany would remain reliant on gas supplies from Russia at least into the mid-2030s.
For the transition, Europe sought to replace Russian pipeline gas with more expensive liquefied natural gas from the United States and the Middle East. Yet, the prospects are uncertain because major LNG suppliers lack sufficient capacity to fill the gap left by Russia. In 2020, Gazprom delivered over 220 billion cubic meters to Europe, with Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy among the largest buyers, and the first two countries involved in resale activities as well.
Many European leaders have spoken about ending reliance on Russian gas without enthusiasm, especially in economies heavily dependent on it. In April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban criticized the EU’s plan to pivot to costly LNG, calling it impractical for many member states that lack LNG terminal access. He warned that without Russian resources, energy security could be at risk for Hungary.
will they freeze
Two pressing questions loom for Europeans: how to endure unusual heat while forecasts warn of a cold winter, and how to ensure steady energy supply through the colder months. The effort to manage July heat has carried a familiar energy-conservation tone—warnings to save electricity, limit air-conditioning use, reduce refrigerator loads, and stay properly hydrated.
Several practical recommendations have circulated for winter. Early in the year, EU officials suggested lowering indoor temperature limits to reduce gas usage for heating. Guidance materials for consumers include advice on sealing windows and doors, and even playful tips such as cuddling with pets to help conserve warmth. Proposals for homes heated by alternative fuels, including wood in some Eastern European countries, have resurfaced as part of a broader energy strategy.
Germany, whose industry remains highly dependent on Russian gas, faces stark scenarios. On the eve of discussions, Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned about a potential nightmare if Russian supplies were cut entirely. Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder warned that a total cutoff could trigger severe economic distress for the country.
what will be the prices
German households have already been informed that even with aggressive conservation—short showers, lower heating settings, and closed windows—gas and utility prices are likely to rise substantially. French media have reported heating costs could double in some cases.
To blunt the impact, the EU is considering a plan to curb gas use across member states by 5-15% relative to consumption in the previous five years. If agreed at a meeting of energy ministers on 26 July, Brussels could empower authorities to reduce gas withdrawals from storage facilities starting the following week.
Analysts suggest that in a worst-case scenario, gas prices could surge above recent peaks. However, the EU’s approach could shield some consumers by lowering demand and spreading costs. In the broader picture, if Europe reduces gas import needs, Gazprom could face losses on European routes, though LNG development in Siberia and the Far East could open new export channels for Russia over a multi-year horizon. Experts note that Russia might redirect surplus fuel toward domestic petrochemical development, especially amid sanctions.