At a pivotal moment for European governance, discussions around potential leadership shifts in Italy and the broader EU illuminate the strain within the Berlin-Paris-New Rome axis. Over the past year and a half, divergent national agendas have created fragmentation as member states pursue distinct paths toward shared objectives. Italy’s political currents trend toward stronger conservative and Eurosceptic voices, a shift that mirrors similar dynamics in Hungary and Poland. This profile also interacts with the influence of Sweden’s Parliament, where the Sweden Democrats hold substantial sway and shape policy discussions inside Spain, the French National Rally, and broader European discourse.
Germany faces a calibration challenge. The chancellorship of Olaf Scholz—rooted in social democratic traditions—has struggled to replicate the perceived cohesion of previous administrations, even given Germany’s economic heft. Scholz has leaned on the French presidency and the Italian government to foster coordination within the EU’s twenty-seven, a collaboration that has benefited pro-European governments in Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Yet internal tensions within Germany’s coalition—particularly between Greens and liberals—temper the system’s overall cohesion.
From the outset of the Ukraine crisis, Scholz’s international leadership has faced criticism from political and media circles in the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, and the Baltic states. The Eastern policy that began decades ago helped shape a shared approach to security, while energy relationships with Russia have long supported the EU economy. Critics argue that the pace and scale of military aid to Ukraine, alongside budgetary commitments, reflect broader debates about defence and security under fiscal constraints.
Macron’s position in flux
President Macron’s influence in Europe has evolved after the loss of an outright parliamentary majority. With a leftist coalition and a mix of partners, the government faces challenges in pursuing reform and maintaining cohesion. Internal disagreements have led to debates about pension reform and the sequencing of policy priorities. Macron’s diplomatic efforts to manage the Ukraine situation and coordinate European responses have drawn varying degrees of criticism from allied capitals, complicating the unity sought by fellow leaders.
Spain’s administration has shown a strong European orientation, yet the fragility of parliamentary majorities under Pedro Sánchez complicates the ability to steer European politics. The European People’s Party’s position in the European Commission and Parliament further colors the bloc’s dynamics, while Spain actively seeks to bring multiple EU members together around its proposals. The broader nationalist and populist currents across Europe add layers of complexity to policymaking at the EU level.
Von der Leyen’s leadership
Ursula von der Leyen, heading the European Commission, has leveraged shifts in influence among major capitals to set EU-wide agendas. Her tenure has emphasized stringent sanctions on Russia, as well as a focus on securing energy independence for member states that diversify away from imported energy while navigating alignment with broader US policy. These measures carry significant implications for European firms and citizens, as well as for Russia’s potential responses.
Within this landscape, the affordability of living and energy costs has emerged as a central issue in several member states. Public sentiment has been affected by rising prices, influencing political calculations across the bloc. Responses to energy supply concerns and the management of price reforms have become a focal point for national governments and EU institutions alike, with some capitals mobilizing substantial resources to shield citizens and businesses from energy shocks.