Ahead of Ecuador’s presidential election this Sunday, the country faces violence that has shaken the campaign season. The murder of candidate Fernando Villavicencio and other political crimes have cast a pall over the vote, prompting a climate of fear and heightened security concerns across the nation. Polls show Luisa González as a leading figure, yet she does not yet hold a decisive majority to avoid a runoff. Three other contenders are vying for a place in the second round, which is expected to occur in mid-October.
Luisa González, the candidate from Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana, greeted the end of the campaign in Guayaquil this past Thursday. AFP
Luisa González on behalf of Rafael Correa
González, a 45-year-old lawyer and former member of parliament, seeks to return to Carondelet Palace. The Citizen Revolution party, founded in 2005 by economist Rafael Correa, led Ecuador from 2007 to 2017 before a shift to the right sent him into exile. González brings extensive public-sector experience and a lead role in recent months that has propelled her toward the presidency. She is polling around 30% and is seen as a successor to Andrés Arauz in 2021 who narrowly lost to Guillermo Lasso. González is perceived as progressive on economic policy but opposes the decriminalization of abortion, even in cases of rape. In response to recent violence, she has emphasized a security framework centered on policing and the policing apparatus in collaboration with drug-trafficking investigations.
Christian Zurita, Movimiento Construye’s nominee to replace Fernando Villavicencio, who was assassinated during a rally in Quito, dons a helmet and is surrounded by police officers. Efe
Villavicencio’s successor, Christian Zurita
Christian Zurita collaborated with Villavicencio on many investigations into corruption, organized crime, and drug trafficking. They co-authored the book Green Rice, Bribery Industry, published in 2019. Zurita did not expect that Villavicencio’s murder would thrust him into the national spotlight as a standard bearer this Sunday. Before his partner’s death, Villavicencio was second in the polls with about 12.5% of voter support. Now Zurita leads his campaign, adopting a journalism-to-politics trajectory similar to his late colleague. Zurita has worked across print and television media. His work on a controversial book with Juan Carlos Calderón led to a conviction in absentia for Correa. Zurita has urged stronger policing, better training and equipment for the police, enhanced intelligence protocols to combat crime, and closer cooperation with the United States.
Jan Topic, a candidate for a country without fear, poses for photographers at the closing ceremony of the campaign in Guayaquil. Vincent Gaibor / Bloomberg
Jan Topic, prophet of the heavy hand
The Villavicencio case has prompted some contenders to draw inspiration from Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, in crafting assertive security messages. Jan Topic, a security industry entrepreneur, aims to emerge from the margins and emulate the Salvadoran model in Ecuador. With a background as a former soldier in the French Foreign Legion, Topic projects a tough stance against crime, sometimes adopting military imagery in his campaign. He has embraced a posture of zero tolerance for crime, seeking to elevate his profile as the election nears.
Yaku Pérez, the environment as a poster
Born in 1969, Pérez has been a leading figure within Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador. He represented the movement in the 2021 presidential election and now leads his own group, We Are Water. Pérez remains the only candidate from a traditionally indigenous background in this race, as Pachakutik chose not to nominate a separate candidate this time. Environmental stewardship sits at the core of his platform, and his activist background has led to several periods of imprisonment. Pérez holds master’s degrees in environmental and criminal law and advocates a balanced approach that blends cautious enforcement with investments in education and youth employment. He currently polls around 7.5%.
Otto Sonnenholzner, center-right standard bearer
Economist, businessman, and media figure Otto Sonnenholzner represents a continuity-oriented, center-right vision. He has faced a difficult political path since 2017 but remains active through the Avanza and SUMA parties. Sonnenholzner warns against a return to populist trends and argues for policies that attract foreign investment. He has proposed judicial reforms to speed up sentences and has supported a security policy aimed at safeguarding the public without sacrificing basic liberties. His latest polling places him around 5% to 5.5% of the vote.