Amid a climate of fear about a potential fatal incident and a broad public indifference as many focus on a South American qualifier, Ecuador held the final stretch of its election campaign on Thursday. The 35-year-old businessman Daniel Noboa and his rival Luisa González pressed their final arguments to win the presidency. The murder of centrist candidate Fernando Villavicencio before the first round had a profound impact, disrupting the pace of electoral competition. Noboa, a member of Democratic Alliance, held a final event in Santa Elena, about 72 kilometers from Guayaquil, while González spoke in a coastal city grappling with drug trafficking. “We are here to restore to Ecuador a homeland that shines with color under a single flag,” Noboa said. The candidates moved under heavy security, wearing bulletproof vests as a large police and military presence shadowed their every move. Uniformed officers with long guns monitored the proceedings closely.
González, 45, led the field in the first round with 34 percent of the vote on behalf of the Citizen Revolution. That result is notable, but analysts say it may not be enough to secure a clear path to Sunday’s runoff. A notable distrust toward the political establishment persists in parts of Ecuadorian society, and González faces the challenge of overcoming the perception of inexperience and the weight of being the son of longtime businessman and perennial candidate Álvaro Noboa.
Surveys
Recent polls offer a mixed picture. According to the consultancy Comunicaliza, 41.5 percent of potential voters lean toward the centre-right candidate, while 36.4 percent back González. About 12.4 percent are undecided and roughly 10 percent would cast a blank vote or abstain. From the perspective of Business and Strategies, Noboa appears slightly ahead of the Citizen Revolution candidate. Telcodata, in contrast, projected a technical tie between the two contenders. These figures reflect a country navigating a tight race with shifts possible up to the final bell.
The indigenous movement, known for its strong domestic roots and mobilization capacity, had a reduced role in this election. Leonidas Iza, president of the Confederation of Indigenous Nations of Ecuador, signaled opposition to the political right and to drug trafficking, urging a united stance against forces that he said burden the country. He avoided naming González directly but suggested that the candidates did not represent the same path for the nation, hinting at divisions within Conaie. Some analysts warn that indigenous votes could swing the balance in favor of one side or the other.
Limited Time
Approximately 17 million citizens were eligible to vote for the president. The vote also included overseas ballots for national legislators, but irregularities led the National Electoral Council to suspend some telematic voting processes. President Guillermo Lasso had called for elections ahead of schedule, dissolving parliamentary activities to prevent impeachment and triggering new elections so the winner could serve the remainder of the term. Voters will head to the polls again in 2025 as the political process resumes.
The country has faced a troubling security situation. Ecuador recorded one of the region’s highest murder rates, with 25.9 homicides per 100,000 people in recent years, and crime increased sharply in the first half of 2023 compared with the previous year. In the days leading up to the campaign’s close, violence touched several communities. Influencer known as “Polilla” Sánchez was killed in Esmeraldas, near Quito, and gunfire was reported near the residence of Mariana Mendieta, a former mayor who was kidnapped. Reports also noted a violent incident in Manta and a high-profile figure linked to organized crime assassinated in an urban area. Such events have become an unfortunate element of public life in the nation.
Both Noboa and González have promised a tough approach to gangs, emphasizing collaboration with other security forces and international partners. Critics describe the race as a contest between two candidacies lacking distinctive charisma or a clear governing vision. A columnist for El Universo summarized the sentiment when noting that both candidates often appear more like placeholders than leaders ready to chart a definitive path for Ecuador. Nevertheless, the electoral process remains a focal point for a country seeking stability and a refreshed future for its citizens.