Fernando Villavicencio, an Ecuadorian presidential candidate, faced relentless threats from organized crime tied to the drug trade, including the Sinaloa cartel. His warnings that threats escalate when he spoke out proved tragically true when he was killed. The moment carried a stark diagnosis: Ecuador was edging toward a era where drugs and violence shape daily life, with shootings and car bombings becoming disturbingly routine.
Under President Guillermo Lasso, who pursued a renewed mandate in the August elections, Ecuador confronted an unprecedented surge in crime and insecurity. A state of emergency and curfews spread across multiple provinces after a string of drug-related murders, revealing a crisis that touched everyday life and governance.
The question of why drug trafficking is gaining ground and destabilizing Ecuador is multi-layered. Analysts point to a mix of geographic vulnerabilities and systemic factors. Carlos Espinosa Fernandez de Cordoba, who coordinates International Relations at Universidad San Francisco de Quito, notes that Ecuador’s proximity to major cocaine-producing regions in Colombia and Peru creates structural exposure. This proximity intertwines with the country’s political and economic fabric, shaping how trafficking networks operate and where vulnerability lies. A senior official at USFQ has underscored this insight.
Corruption
Beyond external pressures, other vulnerabilities persist. A dollarized economy, a broad and interconnected road network, and a strong state presence in a relatively small region can slow the expansion of drug trafficking and money laundering, yet they cannot eliminate these crimes. Experts emphasize that illicit activities can still permeate the financial system and transport corridors, exploiting gaps and oversight weaknesses where they appear most exposed.
The impact of drug trafficking extends across Ecuador’s economy and society. Liquidity spikes, a growing informal sector, and fraudulent export practices used to launder money contribute to macroeconomic instability. The tension between economic life and law enforcement creates an atmosphere where life, peace, institutions, and democratic norms feel strained. The presence of cocaine production elsewhere remains a key driver behind Ecuador’s vulnerability, influencing policy choices and enforcement strategies.
Campaign Killings
The 2023 electoral period highlighted a drift toward greater violence. Villavicencio’s murder was not an isolated event; it was followed by the assassination of a candidate in Esmeraldas and, days later, a coastal town mayoral leader who was killed in an armed attack that wounded others. These incidents underscored the danger landscape surrounding national elections and the pressure it places on security services and candidates alike.
The Organization of American States Election Observation Mission called for heightened security for all candidates and urged authorities to bolster protective measures in response to the attacks. The shootings and intimidation faced by political figures drew attention to broader risks faced by journalists and public figures who have criticized criminal groups in Ecuador. In interviews and public statements, several candidates have warned that threats cannot be ignored and that decisive action against drug trafficking is essential for the country’s future.
The presidential landscape, while not yet decided by a decisive victory, already showed shifts in public sentiment and rhetoric as candidates addressed crime and security. Strong statements from some leaders reflected a demand for accountability and a commitment to reducing criminal influence over politics, even as threats persisted and the human costs mounted there and elsewhere in the region.
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