1. Cross-death: dissolving the National Assembly
Analysts describe a bold, high-risk step taken by the presidency when the National Assembly seemed poised to remove him. President Guillermo Lasso, facing corruption accusations and intense pressure from supporters of the former administration, declared the dissolution of the Assembly. This move, framed as protecting democracy while destabilizing the state, drew sharp criticism. The Constitutional Court limited the scope of proceedings, enabling accountability mainly on embezzlement concerns and allowing the government to sidestep broader investigations. Critics pointed to public companies tied to relatives, suggesting conflicts of interest, while supporters argued the action was necessary to reset a polarized political climate.
2. The timing of the new elections
The dissolution granted the presidency temporary new powers, with election timing in flux. Election officials faced an urgent deadline to set a roadmap. The National Electoral Council was tasked with outlining a calendar under a tense and unpredictable environment. If key requirements were met and most parties backed the plan, Ecuador would move to elections within a defined 90-day window. Winners would take office for the remainder of the current term alongside the National Assembly, with governance continuing through May 2025.
The process depended on a delicate balance: the council needed broad consensus, while opponents pressed for a calendar that could curb perceived overreach. In this volatile landscape, Ecuadorians watched closely as the country weighed a path toward a new political chapter while the current administration navigated ongoing pressures from multiple fronts.
3. The risk of ruling by decree
Despite some international support from the United States, Mexico, and Peru, Ecuador found itself navigating a narrow corridor. Political factions aligned with the former Correa administration and other conservative groups pushed back against Lasso’s agenda, while regional partners weighed their own strategic interests. The president warned of a street-level confrontation if opposition forces continued to resist his plans. The possibility of governing by decree emerged as a volatile tool, raising fears of intensified political struggles. Andrés Arauz, the Correa-aligned candidate who lost the last national contest, warned of a turbulent period ahead as the government pressed certain reform measures. He joined others in contending that the administration risked advancing a plutocratic program. Supporters argued that decisive leadership was required to break a stubborn stalemate, while critics stressed the danger of eroding democratic norms. Amid this clash, exiled figures and competing factions remained active political actors, shaping the direction of protests and public discourse.
4. Lasso’s challenges
Guillermo Lasso entered office with a mandate that reflected a broad segment of society’s discontent. Once in power, he confronted a political landscape resistant to reform and a web of local movements and interest groups. Early missteps did not derail his government, but persistent structural issues continued to limit progress. The economy faced a slow recovery from the pandemic era, with persistent fiscal pressures and a high fiscal deficit. Dollarization remained a central feature of the economy, and demographic vulnerability, including rising poverty, continued to shape policy debates. Remittances from abroad—primarily the United States and Europe—remained a vital support for household incomes, contributing to consumption and stabilizing balance of payments during a period of adjustment.
#5. Security challenges
Lasso pledged to curb urban crime and the violence associated with organized drug networks. 2022–2023 marked a particularly brutal phase, with a spike in homicides and gender-based violence. The national crime picture showed elevated murder rates, and organized crime battles spilled into prisons, prompting debates about extraordinary measures. The government faced the dual task of pressing for stronger policing and safeguarding civil liberties as it sought to disrupt criminal networks. The security crisis underscored the complex link between law enforcement, social conditions, and regional trafficking patterns, challenging authorities to deliver tangible improvements while maintaining public trust.