Western markets started from measured investment steps before rates rose, and even with strong domestic demand, the pullback in investment is already shadowing growth prospects. An analysis published by Credit and Bijou and reviewed by major analysts points to growing fears of a slowdown. Falling inflation and rising wages have boosted household spending, yet these gains do not solve a broader problem: rising nonpayment risk. Lower energy costs and resilient consumption do not appear enough to offset the drag from higher interest rates and tighter credit standards.
Crédito y Caución reports that 46% of Western European companies postponed investments due to greater risk of nonpayment from their commercial clients. The latest Payment Applications Barometer, published by Crédito y Caución, identifies a clear pattern in which Western European firms delay or suspend investment plans to navigate today’s tough economic environment. The data underline heightened liquidity strain and an increased risk of insolvency.
Postponement or paralysis of investments stands out as the first major signal of trouble and translates into financial strain and weakened growth prospects or business confidence. Firms may delay long‑term commitments such as advancing clean energy projects, bolstering cyber security, or building a skilled workforce. According to Crédito y Caución, the trend spans 14 markets tracked by its regional barometer: Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Switzerland.
The barometer clearly shows a deterioration in B2B payment behavior in Western Europe, with an average 20% rise in late payments over the past year. Late payments now affect almost half of all credit sales in the region, and companies report needing about one extra week to collect payments compared with 2022.
Results
Delays or failures in intercompany payments often accompany rising interest rates. Many firms prefer borrowing through credit providers instead of relying on more expensive bank loans. The barometer notes that lenders are less willing to approve commercial loan requests, and many companies feel their needs are not fully met. Additional concerns highlighted include persistent inflation, elevated financing costs, and geopolitical tensions. Fears of bankruptcy remain highest in Italy and the United Kingdom, while new worries have emerged in Germany and Austria related to carbon footprint limits and the storage of clean energy.
Against this backdrop, the expected level of bankruptcies has risen, contributing to a broader deterioration in the global commercial credit risk landscape that affects companies across multiple regions, including Western Europe. This helps explain why many regional firms have sharpened their focus on credit risk management in B2B commerce, with a notable share of companies reporting they have secured credit insurance to cushion the impact of nonpayment on their operations. Reports indicate customer counts are up on average by about 15% year over year, according to Andreas Tesch, Head of Market at Atradius. Atradius offers trade credit insurance, surety, and collection services in over 50 countries. Catalan West.
Industry voices in the United States and Europe acknowledge a slowdown ahead, citing the lagged effects of higher rates and ongoing debt dynamics. Market observers note the possibility of more rate adjustments and tighter fiscal parameters as regulators strengthen oversight. The consensus among analysts is that the global outlook will hinge on how quickly lending conditions normalize and how effectively businesses manage credit risk through insurance and smarter receivables strategies.