This Black Friday 2023 comes at a challenging moment for the retail sector, and there is little room for excuses. Experts highlight a clear tension between balancing inventories, managing working capital, controlling costs, and optimizing supply chains during this campaign. In practice, trade after summer has cooled as inflation bites and interest rates rise. The ECB decision and global financial conditions have shaped consumer behavior, reducing disposable income and borrowing capacity for many households. Businesses recognize the safety signal in pushing aggressive discounts this Friday to capture share from competitors, but steep markdowns often signal underlying stress in the income statement and slimmer profits. Analysts therefore anticipate sales to dip versus the previous year, a pattern already seen in the weeks leading up to late November when discounts were sometimes preceded by price hikes. Crédito y Caución projects that current conditions will translate into a moderate year‑on‑year decline in Spain’s Black Friday and Christmas purchases.
The credit insurer expects margins to deteriorate, especially for smaller firms, amid weaker demand, intensified competition on the supply side, and aggressive discounts aimed at balancing stock with higher financing and operating costs.
France
The retail picture across nearby countries mirrors the trend. The Crédito y Caución report points to substantial discounts in France driven by high stock levels. In 2023 consumer electronics have been among the hardest hit sectors, with sales down nearly 5 percent year over year. A rise in defaults and bankruptcies in this sector is anticipated in the first half of 2024.
Germany
In Germany, cautious spending on non‑essential goods and a squeeze on disposable income reinforce a bleak outlook for the sector next year. The risk of a recession climbs as energy costs stay elevated, shaping both business plans and consumer choices.
Italy
Italy faces forecasts of a 7 percent drop in the number of retail outlets in 2023 versus the pre‑pandemic total. Sales of consumer electronics, cosmetics and textiles are expected to fall year over year during Black Friday and the holiday season. Only ecological or recycled products show potential for a reverse trend. Although Italy’s e‑commerce market remains smaller than many peers, smaller retailers are especially vulnerable to defaults and bankruptcies.
Netherlands
In the Netherlands, Black Friday and the Christmas period are projected to deliver similar or slightly higher revenue than 2022, driven by inflation dynamics. Home appliances may perform comparatively well, while consumer electronics could stall. High inventories could spark discount wars among retailers, fading margins.
United Kingdom
Across the UK, Black Friday stretches have cemented a tradition of generous promotions, with demand expected to contract slowly. Electronics and household goods, particularly the pricier items, may lag behind other categories.
United States of America
Across the United States, Thanksgiving and Black Friday bring sharp price cuts, fueling a long Christmas shopping season. American retailers generally sit in a stronger position than their European counterparts. Sales are forecast to rise roughly 3 to 4 percent in November and December, though the growth rate shows a downward trend versus 2022 and 2021 figures. About 60 percent of the increase is anticipated to come from online channels, which underscores the vulnerability of physical stores to shifting shopping patterns.