In the Mediterranean basin, excessive risk from forest fires has doubled over the past four decades, and that rise is linked to a higher likelihood that fires will be more severe. This is the assessment of Samira Khodayar, who heads the Meteorology group at the Mediterranean Center for Environmental Studies, commonly known as CEAM.
The situation on the Castellón interior illustrates the reality on the ground. A sprawling wildfire, now difficult to contain, has already burned thousands of hectares, with a grim forecast for today due to adverse weather. Khodayar notes that these evolving conditions demand a reassessment of how forest land is managed.
Historically, concerted prevention efforts have reduced the number of fires in communities like Valencia. Yet other dynamics are at play. Rural depopulation and changing land uses have altered landscape management, leaving many areas more vulnerable. A troubling consequence reported by the expert is the proliferation of highly combustible materials in rural and mountainous zones, which compounds risk. Without a shift toward more effective forest management, the potential damage could be severe and widespread.
In Khodayar’s view, the trend toward greater fire risk is closely tied to climate change. Warmer, drier conditions make fires more likely to ignite and to spread rapidly. The Castellón event is cited as an example of how this change manifests as what some researchers call the sixth generation of megafires, a classification that signals unprecedented scale and intensity for fires in the region.
Experts describe forest fires as complex phenomena driven by a constellation of factors. Natural ignition sources such as lightning play a role, but human activity—whether deliberate or accidental—also contributes. Once a fire starts, its behavior is shaped by soil moisture, wind patterns, humidity, and temperature. These conditions, in turn, influence the speed and direction of flame spread.
According to the climate crisis narrative, conditions have become drier and warmer overall. Less rainfall and higher temperatures create an environment in which fires can take hold more easily and persist longer. This March, temperatures reportedly exceeded the regional average by about two degrees, and the period has included a pronounced dry spell. These climatic shifts amplify both the likelihood of ignition and the potential ferocity of fires when they occur.
Given these dynamics, a proactive approach to land management becomes essential. That means rethinking how forests are structured, how surrounding rural areas are maintained, and how prevention and rapid response efforts are funded and organized. The implications extend beyond immediate firefighting needs: healthy forest management supports biodiversity, safeguards soil and water resources, and helps communities recover more quickly after fires.
Researchers emphasize that monitoring weather patterns, fuel loads, and land use changes must be part of a comprehensive strategy. Integrated planning can help predict when conditions are ripe for large fires, enabling preemptive measures, early evacuations if necessary, and more effective suppression tactics. The Castellón fire incident underscores the urgency of implementing such strategies across the Mediterranean basin, especially in areas where land abandonment has created gaps in fuel management and preparedness.
In addition to climate considerations, public awareness and community involvement remain pivotal. Local residents, farmers, and land managers alike benefit from education on fire prevention, safe agricultural practices, and the safe use of machinery and outdoor practices in high-risk periods. Strengthening collaborative networks among meteorological services, forest services, and municipal authorities can improve the speed and precision of fire response, reducing overall damage and safeguarding livelihoods.
Notes: The analysis draws on ongoing work by CEAM and affiliated researchers who monitor the intersection of climate trends and fire dynamics in the Mediterranean. For further context, CEAM highlights how shifting weather patterns affect both ignition probabilities and fire behavior, with implications for land-use planning and emergency response.