Decarbonising the Canary Islands: costs, plans and pathways
Estimated costs to reach a fully decarbonised Canary Islands by 2040 sit around 40.13 billion euros. The Draft Canary Islands Energy Transition Plan for 2030, supported by the Ministry of Ecological Transition and drawn up by the Institute Canary Islands Technology, lays out three possible routes to reach the goal. By 2030, about 60% of the islands’ electricity could come from renewable sources, with a target of complete decarbonisation by 2040, a timeline that precedes the national plan.
Among the three options, labeled 0, 1 and 2, the plan relies on the third as the most feasible path to decarbonisation and to delivering material savings. Economically, this option carries a margin of 1.403 billion euros compared with the others.
The zero alternative falls short: it rejects additional measures beyond those currently under development in the Canary Islands energy sector and imagines no new improvements.
The plan targets an electric vehicle fleet of 225,424 cars and 7,183 hydrogen vehicles by 2030.
Alternative 1, which was selected for emphasis, offers stronger decarbonisation indicators by 2030 and commits to a fundamental overhaul of the island energy system to reach zero emissions by 2040. It emphasizes distributed generation, energy efficiency gains, expanding renewable energy, storage, hydrogen usage and smarter energy management, aiming to replace fossil fuel power generation as soon as possible at all levels. Public and private investments are forecast to total 12.491 billion euros by 2030, with a 60% decarbonisation target. Projections show 41.533 billion euros by 2040.
the chosen alternative
Alternative 2, supported by the plan, offers a slower rollout for some immature technologies, with decarbonisation now scheduled to complete between 2031 and 2040. It foresees disruptive technologies such as energy storage, hydrogen production and synthetic fuels reaching sufficient maturity this decade to reduce costs and make decarbonisation investment more attractive. The cost plan places 7.321 billion euros on this path by 2030, with a steep rise in the final decade to 40.13 billion euros by 2040, which is 1.403 billion euros less than the alternative 1 route.
The draft remains open to the public via the Ministry of Ecological Transformation and will be clarified further before a full public release.
electric vehicles and the transport sector
What is driving decarbonisation in transport? The document highlights that light vehicles account for the majority of island emissions, with 57.62% coming from cars, vans and motorcycles. Heavy transport, including buses and trucks, is steered toward decarbonisation through hydrogen or fuel cell technologies. In the selected route, the number of electric light vehicles will rise by 2030, with total registered vehicles predicted to top 1,669,825. The light vehicle segment is slated to reach 225,424 vehicles, while heavy transport requires 7,183 hydrogen vehicles. Charging infrastructure is planned at roughly 249,765 points, and at least 17 hydrogen production sites are projected to support hydrogen vehicles. Biofuel vehicles, estimated at 13,847, are also anticipated. The decarbonised fleet is expected to total 262,987 vehicles, representing around 16% of the island total. Maritime decarbonisation focuses on inter-island routes and explores green ammonia as a fuel for passenger and freight ships, alongside electrification for recreational and local fishing vessels.
green ammonia for ships and synthetic fuels in aviation
In aviation, the viable route to decarbonisation points to synthetic fuels produced from renewable energy. The plan discusses the potential development of synthetic kerosene, with at least one experimental facility linked to an airport in the Canary Islands. It also notes that fuel could be sourced from outside the islands, but stresses that electricity sector transformation is essential to enable these options. The plan supports both domestic electricity use and energy demand linked to electric transport and maritime operations. Installed renewable capacity is planned at 3,410 megawatts, distributed across onshore wind, offshore wind, onshore photovoltaic, offshore solar, self-consumption, biomass and geothermal sources. Progress in energy storage is highlighted as a key enabler.
Overall, the plan envisions strong growth in renewable energy use while expanding storage capabilities to support a resilient decarbonised energy system.
All figures reflect the public availability of the draft plan on the Ministry’s website and the ongoing consultation process to refine cost estimates and implementation milestones.