Brazil has officially entered the election race for the first round on October 2. Although Jair Bolsonaro is the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is already active in campaigning, with partisan advertising and public actions permitted starting this Tuesday. The contest for the presidency is at its most intense since Brazil’s return to democracy in the mid-1980s. The tension stems in part from Bolsonaro’s unusual calls for transparency about the results and his threats of military intervention. At present, polls do not favor the retired captain. A recent IPEC poll shows Lula at 44 percent, 12 points ahead of Bolsonaro, while 46 percent of Brazilians reject Bolsonaro. The Labor Party (PT) candidate also carries a negative image of 33 percent. If a second round occurs on the last Sunday of October, Lula would win with a larger margin.
The current president believes it is premature to predict defeat and is choosing to tighten his grip on the race by rolling out stimulus measures for the most affected social groups while reinforcing a narrative of distrust toward electoral institutions. On Independence Day, September 7, the far right is expected to stage its first show of force in Rio de Janeiro.
Regarding his first appearance at the Volkswagen factory on the outskirts of São Paulo, Lula remarked, “After half a century in public life, including eight years as president, I return to the factory gate where it all began.” There, his political legend was forged, and he delivered a message of hope.
Discussion scenes
Analysts anticipate Bolsonaro will be in a stronger position to challenge his opponent as the first voting date nears. “The economy lends him support, but that is not all. With the campaign underway, messaging gains even more significance. Bolsonaro’s fluency in the language of social networks remains unmatched, even by Lula, who connects with voters from a different era. This digital capital could be enough to secure victory,” commented Joel Pinheiro de Freitas, a columnist for a major Brazilian publication. He noted that online spaces dominated by party-aligned blogs once spread positive narratives while attacking the traditional press, often labeled as the PIG (Pulsemaker Press Party). What has changed is the social networks that have evolved from their early days and now dominate political discourse. This week, the virtual space is expected to flood with government ads and a more aggressive wave of misinformation, even as electoral authorities maintain censorship.
The first litmus test for Bolsonarism will be Independence Day. Bolsonaro seems to have distanced himself from the rally, urging the Army, Navy, and Air Force to participate. “For the first time, our Armed Forces and auxiliary troops will parade along the Copacabana coast,” Bolsonaro stated. “We have something as important as or more important than our lives, and that is our freedom. This should be announced on September 7,” he added.
Lula is publicly supporting his former rival, conservative Geraldo Alckmin, who was a candidate in the 2006 elections, as he plans a nationwide campaign tour similar to recent race cycles. Security officials do not rule out the possibility of unexpected incidents given the openly aggressive rhetoric from the most radical strands of Bolsonarism.