Brazil’s municipal elections featured a contest between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, with results that showed a modest tilt toward the far right in many urban centers. Yet as a midterm vote, the outcome does not alter the national governing dynamic, nor does it grant Bolsonaro a clear path to claim a sweeping victory or press for amnesty to contest the 2026 presidential election. The former army captain remains barred from public office until 2030 by the Superior Electoral Court for spreading questions about the transparency of the 2022 vote. (Reuters)
Both the president and his predecessor avoided center stage, letting their parties, the Workers’ Party and the Liberal party, drive the battle in their own names. São Paulo, a megacity of roughly 12 million residents, is headed for a second round on October 27. The duel between incumbent bolsonarista mayor Ricardo Nunes and left-leaning Guilherme Boulos, backed by Lula, holds particular significance for the government and its critics. Nunes received 29.59% of the vote to Boulos’s 29.07%. Pablo Marçal, an ultra-right candidate sometimes bolder than Bolsonaro, finished in third place. His defeat was described by the paulista daily Estado as a signal to reinspect a moderation strategy. Analysts largely expect Nunes to be re-elected, though the PT will push hard to avoid a difficult defeat. Boulos argued for dialogue with those who did not vote for him in the first round, saying that a broad majority voted for change, and that concerns about public safety, health, and transport should guide policy. He also highlighted perceived ties between Nunes and organized crime. (Reuters)
The two leaders avoided the limelight while their campaigns framed the debate around security, public health, and urban management. The statement from Boulos underscored a broader push to appeal to ordinary residents who seek tangible improvements in daily life. (Reuters)
In the meantime, centrist Eduardo Paes retained Rio de Janeiro in the first round with about 60.26% of ballots counted. Paes, who led Rio between 2009 and 2017 and oversaw the 2016 Olympics, returned to the mayoralty in 2020 after defeating Marcelo Crivella. The win aligns with Lula’s broader political strategy, and the victorious night included gracious remarks from Paes thanking Lula for support. Paes urged an end to the polarization and called for unity to meet the needs of people across the city, stressing the importance of serving all communities regardless of political stance. Bolsonaro had backed Alexandre Ramagem, a former head of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency, who is currently under investigation for alleged espionage tied to a controversial information campaign. (Reuters)
Signs of polarization emerged as the campaign regionally sharpened. The Liberal Party captured key capitals such as Maceió and Rio Branco, and it has progressed to runoffs in nine more. The contest pits the Liberal Party against the Workers’ Party in Cuiabá and Fortaleza, the capitals of Mato Grosso and Ceará, in environments shaped by security concerns, climate effects, and urban development needs. (Reuters)
Carlos and Jair Renan Bolsonaro, two of the former president’s sons, won seats in the city councils of Rio de Janeiro and the resort town of Camboriú, respectively. Alexandre Frota, a former adult-film actor turned politician, won a council seat in Cotia, a city in the interior of São Paulo. Frota had previously aligned with the Bolsonaro faction but ran with a left‑leaning party in this cycle. The elections also featured notable personalities and opportunistic moves, reflecting a climate where political identities are especially fluid in local arenas. (Reuters)
Environmental questions surfaced as a defining backdrop to the municipal contests, even though the campaigns largely did not center on climate policy. This year’s fires scorched about 4.6 million hectares, driven in part by severe drought and ongoing deforestation linked to agricultural expansion. The disaster affected nearly 19 million people, and the Negro River reached historically low levels, underscoring mounting ecological pressures. Economic losses were estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and roughly 1,100 fire hotspots remained active. (Reuters)
Earlier in May, floods in Rio Grande do Sul submerged more than 460 municipalities and caused significant loss of life. Porto Alegre, the state capital, saw a runoff between centrist Sebastião Melo and PT candidate Maria do Rosário. Across the region, environmental mishaps did not dominate all campaigns, yet surveys showed that the public’s concern about climate impacts and related risks persisted. The apparent paradox stood out: a degree of support for the bolsonarist message in urban centers coexisted with a public appetite for practical solutions to environmental crises. (Reuters)
Signs of polarization
The ideological divide left a mark on Brazil’s major districts. The Liberal Party won in Maceió and Rio Branco, the capitals of Alagoas and Acre, and it advanced to second rounds in additional cities. The joint contests between the Liberal Party and the Workers’ Party are shaping the composition of several city halls and set the tone for the national political climate as the 2026 votes approach. (Reuters)
In addition to the political battleground, the elections highlighted how family ties and individual actors shape local landscapes. In Rio de Janeiro and Camboriú, Bolsonaro’s offspring secured council seats, while former allies challenged established figures elsewhere. The broader pattern points to a crowded field where personal narratives and party loyalties interact with policy questions that resonate with daily life. (Reuters)
The environmental issues, while not always central to campaign messaging, cast a long shadow over voter sentiment. In many cities, residents linked urban services and resilience to climate risks, emphasizing the need for sustainable planning, flood management, and responsible land use. The combination of local concerns and national political fault lines suggests a pivotal period for Brazilian cities as they prepare for future electoral rounds and policy decisions. (Reuters)