Sixty percent of fires involve either reckless or negligent acts. But who is reckless, exactly? What does the behavioral portrait look like for a potential arsonist? Using a mathematical algorithm, a Civil Guard tool builds a profile of the likely perpetrator, typically over 46, self-employed, rural, and without a criminal record.
The year 2022 broke the decade-long trend, and the area burned so far is approaching 300,000 hectares. That figure is already three times the long-term average, according to data from the European Forest Fire Information System.
In fact, the system had surpassed the prior year by June, as noted by Commander-in-Chief Andres Sotoca, head of the Criminal Behavior Analysis Division of the Forensic Police Technical Unit (UTPJ) of the Civil Guard.
Designed after the fire wave that devastated Galicia in 2006, this vehicle and its accompanying program were developed by Sotoca to help clarify the author behind fires described as criminal acts that erase evidence.
An example of the challenge: of 8,780 fires recorded in 2021, roughly half a thousand perpetrators were identified.
To assist investigators, the Civil Guard introduced this tool. The Environmental Attorney’s office also seeks to apply the analysis to 3,012 forest fire cases where perpetrators have already been identified.
A growing number of officers are referencing Sotoca’s hypothesis—the profile of the arsonist under investigation. With the data available, the commander produces a report that becomes part of the proceedings.
Why do fires occur?
As the commander recalled, sixty percent of forest fires stem from negligence. Within that share, about thirty-eight percent are minor negligence, meaning accidental fires where the author accepts responsibility and even assists in extinguishing the flames.
A more severe category, approximately twenty-two percent, involves recklessness where the author evades the area and conceals the act.
Another twenty percent describe fires as frivolous or driven by a pathological impulse; about ten percent are provoked for financial gain, and roughly four to five percent for revenge.
Arsonists are part of this mix, though they represent a small slice. They may derive pleasure from watching fires and even tamper with extinguishment as a vivid, dangerous urge.
This is how the tool classifies fire types in relation to the author being sought.
Yet among those convicted, the distribution shifts. Roughly fifty-two percent are labeled as frivolous arsonists, twenty percent as reckless, and sixteen percent as profit-driven.
Another significant share—about fifty-two percent—are categorized as frivolous, eight percent as arsonists, and the remaining forty-four percent exhibit some form of mental or personality disorder, often coupled with substance use or heavy alcohol consumption.
Behavioral profile
What does the robot sketch of the arsonist reveal?
This mathematical model helps draw a fairly tight portrait of the arsonist. While each situation yields a unique profile, the following archetypes emerge:
1. Serious negligence. The profile often points to a man over 46, married, self-employed, active in rural work, with no prior record or psychological issues. Imprudence usually occurs with a single ignition source near farmland, in the morning or afternoon, across spring, autumn, or winter. Accelerants or retardants are not typically used. Witnesses are usually those who report the fire early.
2. Senseless arsonists. Here the profile also suggests a man, but under 46, single or separated, unemployed or with low income, living alone and with limited social circles. The crime takes place at night in summer, often in a high-risk area with multiple ignition points. The individual travels on foot, nearby, and begins burning along roads near forested areas. Neighbors report the fire, and the author tends not to stay or help after starting it.
He typically uses a lighter or improvised tool, has previous experience, and shows signs of psychological distress. Substance use, including drugs or alcohol, is common among this group.
3. Fires for economic gain. The profile centers on a self-employed person in a couple, with modest education, stable, earning roughly 600 to 1,200 euros monthly. The pattern unfolds in autumn and winter, with multiple ignition points often on roads used for livestock or hunting. Fires near brush can be especially hard to trace.
They tend to operate in the same town as the fire, driving to the scene in an SUV, wielding a lighter or similar tool, and sometimes warn others or neighbors. This is often a serial arson pattern.
4. Revenge. Commander Sotoca notes that cases are few, so the sample is small for precise profiling. Nevertheless, the behavioral portrait for revenge resembles the frivolous type but with greater maladjustment and limited social contact. A criminal record is more common in this group.