Life has changed all over the Mediterranean Levant 7 October. Inside LebanonLife was never the same, especially in the south. The escalation of war is a reality in the areas surrounding the border, where Lebanese Hezbollah militias and the Israeli Army have fought daily battles for more than 2,000 years. 100 days. Approximately 25 Lebanese civilians, including children and journalists, were killed in Israeli bombings, and at least 140 Lebanese fighters were also killed. Hezbollah They too disappeared. On the other side of the border, nine Israeli soldiers lost their lives. But after more than three months of conflict, something seems to be coming back to life in Lebanon: Hezbollah’s popularity.
Although support in Lebanon, which has 18 religious groups recognized in the Constitution, has always remained divided along sectarian lines, Lebanese militias are managing to gain new followers. In a recent survey Washington Institute “a” recorded Support for Hezbollah is increasing “Across the board” compared to the last survey in November 2020. About 34% sunnis and 29% Christians They express positive opinions about the Lebanese political party, but the biggest support continues to come from society Shiite. 93 percent have a positive opinion about Hezbollah, and 89 percent have a “very positive” opinion. “The feeling in the country, especially in the pro-Hezbollah section and among the people living in the south, is definitely that Hezbollah has this power. can protect them “Against Israeli attacks,” he said. Laury HaytayanLebanese expert on oil and gas in the Middle East and North Africa.
“He did something”
The south of Lebanon has been the scene of clashes since October 7, when the war between Hamas and Israel began. raids, bombings and exchanges of fire There are clashes between Iranian-backed militias and Jewish forces almost every day. The violence has awakened old ghosts among thousands of Lebanese families living just kilometers from the enemy border. one of the main support bases For Hezbollah. Many may think: 82,000 people of those forcibly displaced due to attacks International Organization for Migrationmay withdraw this support from militias and political parties that continue the war without participating in it pressure and distraction strategy Against the “Zionist enemy”.
“This is what Hezbollah is doing with Israel: very calculated“, Haytayan explains to El Periódico de Catalunya of the Prensa Ibérica group. After three months of constant threats of a possible escalation, including the killing of a Hamas political leader in the suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese militias revealed its strategy. ” Some of the actions of Hezbollah will not fall into the trap of realization. extreme actions “This could give Israel the opportunity to enter Lebanese territory and create the buffer zone that Israel wants today,” he adds. Also, his leader’s speeches, Hassan Nasrallah, indicating that they have no intention of participating in a full-scale war. “They don’t have the same support as before.” 2006 war “Even though they support the Palestinian movement, they do not want war in Lebanon,” he explains. Joseph DaherSyrian academician and researcher. “Hezbollah can still say it is doing something, even if it is not massively involved in the war,” says the author of the book ‘Hezbollah: The political economy of the Party of God’ for this newspaper.
Yet before the war, Iran-backed militias, now allied with Hamas, were suffering. comprehensive legitimacy crisis. Hezbollah was born about 41 years ago, in the midst of the Lebanese civil war, with the aim of establishing an organization. islamic republic in the country, as their allies in Tehran did. to resist Israel. They abandoned the first goal a long time ago, but 15 years later they continued to boast the second goal, almost feeling no need to resist due to the lack of clashes. “Support for Hezbollah has been declining since 2006,” says Daher. “His involvement Syrian regime Defeating the rebellion was a huge blow to their support and also 2019 Lebanon uprising“Because he has become the most important actor in the country and is seen as responsible for the economic crisis, like other political actors and the economic class,” he adds.
Economic crisis
Beyond increasing support at the national level, Hezbollah’s strategy can also strengthen its role in the region. For now and maritime agreement Haytayan emphasizes that the agreement between Israel and Lebanon showed this two years ago and emphasizes, “There will be no agreement between Lebanon and Israel after the Israel-Hamas war or between Israel and Lebanon that does not include Hezbollah.” “Hezbollah follows the rules and does not go on adventures [en estos enfrentamientos] because he also sees the benefits of it AmericansFrom those who are trying to gain “more legitimacy” to “be more accepted as the ones who truly control the country” and “who are not challenging them as they used to,” this Lebanese expert adds.
But the war did not change the fact that Lebanon continues to experience one of the world’s worst economic crises since 1850, according to the World Bank. As a Washington Institute poll shows, a slim majority of Lebanese “currently, domestic political and economic reform “It is more important to our country than any foreign policy issue, so we must stay away from foreign war.” local rivals Hezbollah, such as the Lebanese Forces or Kataeb. “Every time the Palestine issue returns, the people of the Middle East unite around the fight against Israel, but significant change About Hezbollah’s vision [en el Líbano] This is very difficult as he stopped being a Lebanese actor and established himself as an actor. regional actor It is present in many other countries and cooperates with Hamas,” Daher concludes.