HE International Tourism On track to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO) first barometer of the year on global tourism shows that international tourismmissed 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels mobilizing a total of 1.3 billion international trips.
Income from international tourism reached $1.4 trillion (1.28 trillion euros) In 2023, 93% of those registered in 2019.
The release of currently suppressed demand, an increase in air connectivity and the further recovery of Asian markets and destinations predict a full recovery in tourism by the end of 2024, according to UNWTO.
Export markets as in 2023 Europe, America And Middle East According to UNWTO, tourism will continue to increase flows and spending around the world until 2024.
The results of international tourism in 2023 exceeded all expectations. strong pent-up demand and the removal or easing of restrictions traveling in many countries.
Last year’s best results were recorded in the Middle East, Europe and Africa regions. The Middle East led the recovery in relative terms as it was the only region to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with 22% more visitors than in 2019.
On your behalf Europe, the world’s most visited region, reaches 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and trips from the United States. In the case of Africa, that continent has recovered 96% of its pre-pandemic visitors, with the Americas reaching 90%.
The worst-performing regions were Asia and the Pacific, which reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. But the results were uneven because South Asia has already recovered 87% of 2019 levels and Northeast Asia around 55%.
According to UNWTO, many destinations recorded double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 compared to 2019. This is the case of four subregions that have exceeded pre-pandemic arrival levels: Southern Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, Central America and North Africa.
Revenue is growing rapidly
UNWTO data also shows that international tourism revenues will reach $1.4 trillion (1.28 trillion euros) in 2023, or 93% of the $1.5 trillion (1.38 trillion euros) in 2019.
total tourism export revenue (including passenger transportation) It is estimated to be 1.6 trillion dollars (1.47 trillion euros) in 2023Almost 95% of 2019.
According to UNWTO, preliminary estimates of the economic contribution of tourism, measured directly in terms of gross domestic product (GDPdT), point to $3.3 trillion (3 trillion euros) in 2023, or 3% of world GDP.
Predictions 2024
UNWTO is confident that international tourism will fully reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, with initial estimates pointing to an increase of 2% above 2019 levels, with 1.5 billion international tourists arriving around the world.
This UNWTO forecast is based on the pace of recovery in Asia as well as the easing of current economic and geopolitical risks. According to the latest confidence survey, 67% of tourism professionals believe that better results will be achieved in 2024 compared to 2023.
Another 28% expect similar results. Only 6% expect tourism outcomes in 2024 to be worse than last year.
These positive results are based on the understanding that the tourism sector still has plenty of room to recover across the Asia region, with the planned reopening of various source markets and destinations helping to accelerate recovery in the region and globally.
China’s outbound and return tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024 due to visa convenience and increased air capacity. China grants one-year visa exemption to France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia.until next November 30th.
In the opinion of the tourism organization, visa and travel facilitation measures will promote various measures to facilitate domestic travel, as well as travel to the Middle East and Africa, which has announced its intention to introduce a unified tourist visa similar to the Schengen visa. -Africa travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
Moreover, UNWTO is confident that Europe will once again improve results in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen free movement zone, and the French city of Paris will host the Olympic Games this summer.
Moreover The strength of travel from the US, backed by the strength of the dollar, will continue to benefit American destinations and from other continents.
Risks continue
However, in its report published for the first time this year, UNWTO assures that the negative effects of economic and geopolitical factors continue to pose significant challenges to the sustainable recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.
“Stubborn inflation, high interest rates, volatility in oil prices And trade disruptions “This situation may continue to affect transportation and accommodation costs worldwide in 2024.”
In this context, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and take local trips, preferring more sustainable trips.
Staff shortages will continue to be a critical issue as tourism businesses face labor shortages to meet high demand.
Moreover, The evolution of the conflict between Hamas and Israel could disrupt travel in the Middle East and affect traveler confidence. “Uncertainty arising from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and other rising geopolitical tensions will continue to weigh on traveler confidence this year,” the report concludes.