It’s been on supermarket shelves for a month Lebanon They are similar to those during pandemic times. There food shortage, there is a lot of tension on the faces this time and there is quite a rush. Overflowing baskets indicate a desire to stock up population accustomed to conflict and instability, but this would catch him in his worst hours in 2023. Lebanon was submerged economic fiasco He who does not see the end is afraid of this Expanding the war against Israel The attacks launched by Hezbollah fighters in the south will spread to other corners of the country and drag the country into the deepest darkness. “In practice, Lebanon does not have the logistical capacity to withstand war,” Lebanese economist denounced Layal Mansur Ichrakieh.
“Already in a situation deep depressioneconomic crisis multidimensionalIn the country where the banking sector has virtually collapsed, citizens are suffering the end of the Lebanese pound, losing 98% of its value, experiencing high inflation. political disaster According to Prensa Ibérica’s El Periódico de Cataluña, this macroeconomist who specializes in dollarized and developing countries confirms that “the Central Bank does not have a governor, a president or a government.” Since Hezbollah began launching rockets and attacks on Israel a day after Hamas’ attack on the Jewish state, war drums They didn’t stop searching. Ironically, he said, “Lebanon is not only too fragile to face a war, but also too fragile to face heavy rains.”
Vulnerability due to “foreign decision”
On the other side of the border guarded by special forces United NationsIsrael has already stated that it is not interested in the escalation of this tension. Most of your efforts are spent on this Ground operation in Gaza Strip and hundreds of bombings of civilian neighborhoods, hospitals, and bakeries that killed more than 9,000 Palestinians. The Lebanese people have little appetite for war. “All of Lebanon, including Hezbollah, we don’t want war“, a few days ago the Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs said: Abdullah Bu HabibIt is in regular contact with Lebanese militias. “We’ve talked to them and my impression is that they won’t start a war,” he said. The first speech of its leader Hassan Nasrallah also seems to indicate this.
There is a feeling of helplessness among its citizens. “Whether there will be a war or not depends on Iran” A foreign decision and it is not a local decision,” says Mansour Ichrakieh. “Lebanon certainly does not want a war, but Iran could easily become its victim if it chooses to do so,” he laments. The land of cedar suffers political mismanagement for a year and a half due to the failure of its leaders to create a stable Executive. Also, their minister since October last year. Financial Crisis What has happened in the last four years in the country, which is considered one of the worst situations in the world since the 19th century by the World Bank, three quarters of the population Try to survive below the poverty line.
Migration of population from the south
In addition to this catastrophic context, the population in the south of the country is already suffering the consequences of an open war on its territory. At least on the Lebanese side 20,000 people fled Towards the north of the country, according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration. “Many southern regions are increasingly empty“We have thousands of Lebanese who have migrated to Beirut and the surrounding areas,” explains Mansour Ichrakieh. “Unfortunately, because the rules and regulations are not followed, many people try to take advantage of the displaced, especially in rural areas. rent He condemned this newspaper by saying, “Raising prices to unreasonable and exorbitant levels.”
The consequences of war in a region are always tragic, but in Lebanon these consequences can be quite tragic. lethal for the existence of the country. Lebanese society is still trying to recover from the effects of the explosion at the port of Beirut, one of which is the coronavirus pandemic, the presence of two million Syrian refugees in the country, and increasing rates. inflation It is at the highest level in the world as it tries to navigate the economic crisis as best it can. “The majority of displaced persons lose their job“It has a direct negative economic impact on a small and large scale,” says Mansour Ichrakieh. At the economic level, the effects of conflict can be irreversible.
“A repeated war for Lebanon since 1975 has already given it a bad reputation. unstable country and classifies it as an area of high-risk investments weak and corrupt domestic economic management”says the economist. Mansour Ichrakieh adds: “But above all, the loss of its citizens is a sufficient argument to prevent a possible war in the future.” Fragile Lebanon carefully watches every move and statement of Hezbollah and Israel because it knows that a simple, sudden move could get it condemned or even condemned. death penalty. While they use their last kilos to fill their pantries, the ghosts of the past have already settled in the Mediterranean houses of the land of cedars.