There is a phrase that has been repeated for weeks in the media and some political circles in Germany: “warm autumn”. With this, journalism and politics aim to summarize what the country might experience in the event of worst-case scenarios; well, social unrest and political instability If inflation continues to rise, energy crisis if it hardens recession ends, and in the worst case, lack of energy creates at least a partial industrial collapse, which can lead to higher unemployment and shortages of certain products.
The voices of the federal government are contradictory. while foreign minister green annalena baerbockthis summer he did not hesitate to admit that the German authorities could deal with a problem effectively. protest wave Social Democratic Chancellor in the fall and winter Olaf Scholz said the country would continue to adapt and social solidarityDespite the fact that the majority of the German population has significantly lost their purchasing power.
“We have already seen that the population is quite affected by the crises. We are facing an overlapping crisis where the lower economic strata have real existential anxieties and the middle classes have real fears of losing social status, making people insecure and anxious. “The mood of El Periódico de Catalunya from the Prensa Ibérica group is clearly unstable and also marked by fear.” Jana FausCo-founder of survey agency Pollytix.
Opportunity for the AfD
This distrust is already reflected in the voting intent polls. Rightest Alternative for Germany (AfD), for example, has been recovering for weeks. Some estimates put the ultra party over 13% already. Consumed by infighting, the AfD had been losing about 10% of its voting intentions for several years. The current situation, which is full of uncertainties and aggravated by a highly developable communication policy of the Government, is thus presented as a problem. Golden opportunity for the German far right.
A Pollytix analysis also warns of another danger with which Germany has decades of experience: among militants of extremist groups, particularly extreme right and militant neo-Nazism.
Another opposition party participating in the “warm autumn” dialectic is the Left, a coalition of post-communist East Germans and former West German social democrats. The formation, which was about to be excluded from the Bundestag in the last federal election last September, is trying to gain a political profile and return to its voting intentions, with a societal discourse demanding greater coverage for the working classes, retirees and retirees. unemployed.. The Left and the AfD agree on the use of certain expressions regarding the crisis Germany is facing, albeit with opposing political views.
double digit inflation
In a country of historical fears price increase, Inflation approached in September 11%, the highest figure in several decades. “We are facing a ‘stagflation’So, a combination stagnant economy even in decline and a high inflation. This is a crisis caused by a lack of supply. In recent years, we have become accustomed to crises caused by insufficient demand. But now we have a serious shortage of goods, especially in the energy and value-added chains. A ‘stagflation’ is very bad news, because politics can do much less in the face of weak demand,” said Ifo president Clemens Fuest.
from the start Russian invasion of Ukraine Scholz government approved three aid packages For citizens and companies combining direct transfers with tax exemption. It has mobilized about 95,000 million euros for this. However, the rating of the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals tripartite government continues to decline, which means a crisis of trust Against the authorities in a volatile and unpredictable situation, something that bothers German citizens who love certainty.
The experts consulted by this newspaper say that this “warm autumn” social unrest and political instabilityAlthough they cannot minimize the social impact of inflation and accept without question a wave of social protest, the magnitude of which is still difficult to estimate. Alexander Kriwoluzky, head of macroeconomic analysis at the DIW institute, gives his forecasts a European dimension: “In Germany, the situation will probably be controllable. it will be much more difficult in Italya place where there are elections and it is quite possible for a non-European government to come to power. The economic situation there could deteriorate once again, so if something develops in Italy, it will come to Germany at some point.”
Source: Informacion
Brandon Hall is an author at “Social Bites”. He is a cultural aficionado who writes about the latest news and developments in the world of art, literature, music, and more. With a passion for the arts and a deep understanding of cultural trends, Brandon provides engaging and thought-provoking articles that keep his readers informed and up-to-date on the latest happenings in the cultural world.