Chancellor Scholz warns of ‘difficult times’ in Germany’s worst coalition crisis

The trigger of the crisis is the following sentence: Constitutional Court (TC) blocked the transfer of some of them in mid-November 60,000 million euros It is called the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), to which large infrastructure and energy projects are affiliated. The tripartite idea of ​​fueling this element with approved credits is Pandemic but they are not used unconstitutional, dictated to the Republic of Turkey in response to the demand of the conservative opposition. Because excess funds created for a specific purpose should not be transferred to another purpose – or emergency – and in a later year.

Scholz faces a dilemma. protect the climate or save money, was summarized a few days ago in the newspaper ‘Süddeutsche Zeitung’. The first directly affects Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Yeşil Robert Habeckand the second from Finance is liberal Christian Lindner. Since the beginning of the legislature in December 2021, both ministers have become advocates of the constant conflict in the tripartite structure. Habeck now “polycrisis“–economic, political and social–if a KTF created to carry out the country’s energy transition and cushion the shock from the replacement of cheap Russian supplies with more expensive alternatives, precipitated by the invasion of Ukraine, is blocked.

Fiscal rule pending

Lindner saw the intention to return to the debt brake discipline in 2023, under which the deficit could not exceed 0.35% of gross domestic product (GDP), was effectively buried. emergenciesjust like the epidemic created. Resorting to an emergency is not something purely abstract or something that can be justified by the economic recession that Germany is experiencing, which will end 2023 with a contraction of 0.4 percent. It needs to be supported by concrete data and approved by the relevant majority of the parliament.

Approval of the supplementary budget for the remainder of the year means a de facto extension of the suspension of the debt brake; While the executive is postponing the ongoing negotiations for the 2024 budget, it is, in Scholz’s words, “meticulously examining” what kind of solutions it will bring to the situation created by the Turkish Republic decision. The effects of this decision do not only concern the 60 billion part of the KTF, but can also reach the entire 200 billion part of the fund called the Financial Stability Fund. For the Greens, the debt brake is outdated and needs to be reformed; For Lindner liberals, this would undermine the goal of fiscal discipline.

Damage to the chancellor’s credibility

Beyond the fight between Habeck and Lindner, reliability by Scholz. Ultimately, the decision of the Republic of Turkey is an insult not only to the current head of Finance, but also to the chancellor who held this ministry in the last grand coalition. Angela Merkel. Theoretically, he should have been warned about his “occurrence”, “incompetence” or “financial manipulation”, as the head of the conservative opposition put it. Friedrich Merz— was unconstitutional. “He is unfit for office,” Merz said in a lively intervention in which he listed the achievements of the country’s successive chancellors, from conservative Helmut Kohl to social democrat Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and even Gerhard Schröder. – to come to this conclusion.

The Bundestag session went into a section where Merz’s rebukes were followed by applause, amid mocking laughter at Scholz’s justifications. The Chancellor had made efforts to ensure that no citizen had to worry about their pension or salary. One should not be afraid of the consequences of ending the meeting. energy price ceiling, created when inflation skyrocketed in this sector, because they are currently below these limits. “We will not leave anyone alone,” he insisted, thus repeating the phrase with which he has previously tried to calm citizens in emergencies such as the climate crisis.

The target of the far right is election

Merz shattered Scholz’s administration because of his position as head of the first opposition group in the Bundestag and also as a leader in the intention to vote if general elections were held. Rightest Alternative for Germany (AfD), According to polls, the second force nationally demanded Scholz’s resignation. “Germany must rid itself of the obvious inadequacy of its coalition,” the head of the parliamentary group said: Alice Weidel.

This is not the first time the AfD has called for an end to this alliance; But this is also strengthened by the prospects of success, which until recently seemed unthinkable. It continues to be excluded as an ally by other parliamentary groups in the Bundestag. But he is emboldened by the victory of right-wing radicalism HollandUltra is where Geert Wilders was catapulted into top-rated power. If Scholz’s tripartite structure collapses, an election may be the most reasonable option to avoid early elections. grand coalition Between social democrats and conservatives. If we hold new elections, the biggest beneficiary will be the AfD.