New computer models run by scientists advising the UN and preparing the IPCC report have revealed a disturbing truth: The climate change the planet is suffering from is happening faster than previously thought. With this new tool, for example, it has been confirmed that the intensification of storms in the southern hemisphere has reached the level predicted for 2080.
About 30 complex computer networks assist climate scientists in their research on global warming. Each network runs a software program consisting of millions of lines of code. These programs are computational models that combine the many physical, chemical and biological events that make up our planet’s climate. Models calculate the state of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, land and ice, and show past and present climate variability and use the data to predict future climate change.
These results are analyzed by research institutes around the world, including the Weizmann Institute of Science, and then It is included in the evaluation report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).. World leaders rely on the IPCC report when formulating their strategies to adapt and mitigate climate change, one of the greatest crises of our generation.
A new study has just been published Nature Climate Changewill certainly make the IPCC and other environmental organizations open their eyes. A team of scientists led by Rei Chemke of the Weizmann Institute’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences has revealed that winter storms are intensifying significantly in the southern hemisphere.
The 2080 prediction has already come true
The work, done in partnership with Yi Ming of Princeton University and Janni Yuval of MIT, will make a big splash at the next climate summit. So far, climate models have predicted an intensification of anthropogenic winter storms towards the end of this century. In the new study, Chemke and his team compared climate model simulations with real storm observations. They This discovery is truly bleak: they have confirmed that the intensification of storms over the past decades has reached predicted levels for 2080.
“A winter storm is a weather event that lasts only a few days. Individually, not every storm carries much climatic weight. However, the long-term impact of winter storms becomes apparent when the cumulative data collected over long periods of time are considered,” explains Chemke. Cumulatively, these storms have a significant impact, influencing the transfer of heat, moisture and momentum in the atmosphere, thereby affecting various climatic regions of the Earth.
“An example of this is the role that storms play in regulating temperature at Earth’s poles. Winter storms are responsible for most of the heat transport from the tropics to the poles. Without their contribution, average temperatures at the poles would have been about 30°C colder,” he added. Similarly, the mass intensification of these storms poses a real and significant threat to societies in the Southern Hemisphere for decades.
“We chose to focus on the southern hemisphere because the concentration recorded there was stronger than in the northern hemisphere,” says Chemke. “We didn’t look at the northern hemisphere, but the intensification of storms appears to be slower in that hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere,” Chemke said. adds Chemke, In the coming years and decades “we will see a more marked intensification of winter storms”.
In his lab at the Weizmann Institute, Chemke studies the physical mechanisms behind large-scale climate change. In this study, he and his colleagues investigated whether these changes in weather patterns were caused by external factors (such as human activities) or were the result of internal fluctuations in the global climate system. They analyzed climate models simulating storm intensification patterns under the isolated influence of internal climatic causes without external influence. Finally they showed Such intensification of storms over the past 20 years has been faster than can be explained by internal climatic behavior alone.
more serious than expected
Chemke, Ming, and Yuval’s research has two immediate and important implications. Firstly, Not only does it show that the climate forecasts for the coming decades are more dire than previous assessments, but it also suggests that human activity may have a greater impact than previously anticipated in the southern hemisphere.. The scientists note that this means “quick and decisive action is needed to stop climate damage in this region.” Second, the bias in climate models needs to be corrected so that they can provide a more accurate climate projection in the future.
Could climate models be predicting other major events incorrectly? “The models do a very good job of estimating almost any parameter,” says Chemke. However, he acknowledges that the parameter they discovered “makes it necessary to adjust the sensitivity of the models.” For example, changes in temperature, precipitation, sea ice and summer storm patterns are accurately simulated by the new system”.
The findings from this study are expected to help climate researchers around the world correct biases in models and create a more accurate prediction of future weather patterns.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01368-8
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