The first studies to warn about decline housing prices in 2023, at least in some markets. According to the forecast model prepared by the appraiser UVE Valoraciones, Apartment prices will fall mainly on the coast. “The biggest declines this year will be in provinces with a high tourism component in their economy, with the exception of Alicante, especially those with negative hypotheses about economic evolution,” they explain.
By province, the cost of acquiring a property in Castellón will fall between 0.3% and 5.3%; between 0.3% and 4.4% in Tarragona; or it will oscillate between a 0.9% growth and a 3.4% decline in Malaga.
Generally speaking, the study “a Nationwide housing bubble‘, but concedes that this is inconsistent with ‘the existence of small domestic real estate bubbles’. He also points out that ‘the most likely thing for Spain as a whole is the stability of nominal prices’.
The final results oscillate between a 2.52% decrease in prices in the most pessimistic hypothesis and a 2.30% increase in the most optimistic hypothesis. This means, given 4% inflation, actual behavior will be negative. The largest predicted decline for a market is 6.6%, which is not a major disaster.
Madrid will suffer
This report, prepared within the scope of the national standard ECO/805/2003 directives, to predict major disruptions in the real estate sector, Madrid as “the only city among those surveyed where the model predicts a decline”, in both the optimistic and pessimistic hypothesis. In the event that the economy contracted more than expected, decreases in the municipality ranged from 0.2% to 6.6%.
One of the most striking points is that although the expectations are bad for the capital, it is not so for its surroundings. “The result for the state of Madrid is much better than the capital” underlines the expert author of the report.
UVE Valoraciones emphasizes that the model used for forecasts that take into account family income, employment or financing conditions yields very variable results for large cities such as Barcelona, \u200b\u200bMalaga or Valencia, indicating that there are “prices” here. more sensitive to the economic situation of the provinces”.
What about the rest of Spain?
The appraiser provides: The 15 provinces with the most vacant houses will experience zero growth a 2.2% decrease in the most optimistic hypothesis and the most pessimistic hypothesis. This list includes Albacete, Ávila, Burgos, Cáceres, Ciudad Real, Córdoba, Cuenca, Jaén, León, Lugo, Orense, Segovia, Soria, Teruel and Zamora. “Evacuated Spanish provinces show a moderate downward trend in prices regardless of the future development of the economy,” they add.
Inside Barcelona and the A Coruña model predicts increases in all hypotheses consideredforecasts declines in all scenarios in Castellón, Tarragona and Guadalajara. “For the rest, results are mixed, between increases for the optimistic option and decreases for the pessimistic option,” the report states.
Source: Informacion
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