Large language models
Experts anticipate that the coming year will mark a peak period for large language models. Neural networks used in deep learning now draw on a wide range of language data to understand and generate text, and they are being integrated more deeply into business workflows. This trend is set to accelerate in the near term.
Support services will move beyond simple chatbot replies toward teaching machines how to hold genuine conversations. Documentation authors will shift from building text from scratch to editing existing material. The same shift will touch straightforward development tasks, where initial code and components may be delegated to advanced assistants. According to Forrester analysts, ten percent of global corporate operations are expected to be handled by digital assistants next year.
Personalization of user experience
With rapid advances in AI, users can expect a truly personalized digital journey where nearly every interaction is tailored to the individual. If 2023 saw ads targeted to audience segments, 2024 will push toward one to one experiences. A clearer portrait of each consumer will emerge, with deeper insight into preferences and behavior.
Personalized content may occupy a central role next year. Firms could move away from broad appeal tactics toward creating direct, singular communications. Think of a unique poster for a sale crafted specifically for each consumer.
Yet this level of personalization carries risks. Vadim Vinogradov, dean of the Faculty of Law at the National Research University and a member of ROCIT, warns about potential downsides of such trends.
He notes that technology is making digital content more individualized, delivering not only information but material crafted for each person.
“It is fascinating but also potentially dangerous. To truly learn a user’s tastes and preferences, more data must be collected,” Vinogradov said.
The dean stresses the importance of avoiding excess and overstepping boundaries in pushing unique experiences onto users.
Some foreign platforms face ongoing privacy and surveillance concerns. If more data is needed to train AI models, questions about consent and measurement become louder. The general view is that Western IT firms optimize for profit, which can lead to forced personalization in some cases.
import substitution
The local IT sector is expected to speed up import substitution as it replaces foreign solutions with domestic options. The number of software tools developed locally continues to outpace last year, and the shift away from foreign products will continue through 2024.
Analysts at Strategy Partners project the Russian information technology market to grow from about 3.1 trillion rubles in 2023 to around 3.5 trillion in 2024. Roughly 60 percent of this total will be IT equipment, with the remainder split between software and IT services.
Faster growth is foreseen in market segments that were previously underdeveloped. Industrial automation will rise quickly, and there will be momentum in system software, office suites, and database management systems. The fate of ROSA Linux and Aurora OS will be closely watched as domestic operating systems aim to compete with foreign products.
Artem Geller, managing partner of SMENA and a contributor to the Federation Council commission for information society development, sees a strong chance that parallel imports will decline next year.
He notes that the domestic IT sector has shown resilience and increasing self-sufficiency. There is real potential for local technology to serve business needs and individual users alike, even as some foreign solutions remain in use for a time.
Geller also believes that a full replacement of foreign software is unlikely in the near term. Parallel imports will likely dwindle gradually through 2024, especially with government support for technology.
On the hardware side, higher prices and longer delivery times for imported equipment are expected. If Russian equivalents exist, purchases may favor domestic options.
cloud technologies
Cloud services look set to become even more central to the IT landscape. The Cloud-Native approach, emphasizing scalable and portable applications across platforms, will gain broad adoption.
Industry cloud platforms will continue expanding, and more users will rely on cloud services. Gartner projects worldwide public cloud end user spending to reach 678.8 billion dollars, up about 20.4 percent.
The Russian cloud market, growing around 20 to 30 percent annually, will maintain its upward trajectory in 2024. Companies expanded cloud budgets in 2023, a trend that will shape the broader view of the IT industry.