The latest projections from the US Congressional Budget Office indicate that the amount of the nation’s public debt held by society is expected to climb to 181% of GDP by 2053, a substantial rise from the 2023 estimate of 98% of GDP. This forecast, reported by Reuters with direct reference to the CBO, highlights a long-term trajectory where debt grows faster than the economy over the coming decades, reshaping the country’s fiscal landscape.
According to the forecast, by the end of 2023 the federal debt held by the public will stand at about 98% of GDP. This figure sets the starting point for a persistent upward path, as the debt burden continues to expand relative to economic output in the years ahead and becomes a central feature of the fiscal outlook.
The document further notes that the debt burden is projected to rise beyond its previous peak, surpassing the 2029 level of 107% of GDP and continuing to move toward approximately 181% of GDP by 2053. This trajectory signals a sustained increase in the share of the economy’s output that is devoted to servicing the national debt, with implications for policies, budgets, and long-term planning.
From the CBO perspective, this rise in debt relative to GDP could slow the economy over time, as larger debt service payments compete with other priorities and crowd out private investment. The forecast points to higher interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt and greater sensitivity of the financial system to shifts in interest rates, both of which could influence the country’s financial stability and its economic outlook across multiple cycles.
A comment from a seasoned financial analyst suggests that over a 30-year horizon the U.S. national debt could reach a level nearing twice the size of the economy. This assessment underscores the potential scale of fiscal challenges and serves as a reminder of the importance of prudent policy design to manage debt dynamics without constraining growth or access to capital.