Ukraine’s public debt is projected to surpass 100% of its GDP in 2024, according to an explanatory note on the draft state budget. This document has been submitted by the Cabinet of Ministers to the parliament for review, signaling a shift in the country’s fiscal outlook as it navigates post-pandemic pressures and ongoing economic reform efforts.
The note places the 2024 public debt at 8.18 trillion hryvnia, which translates to roughly 104.6% of GDP. That level would mark another tightening of Ukraine’s debt profile as policymakers balance financing needs with growth objectives during a period of external headwinds and domestic reform challenges.
Earlier reports indicated a debt growth trajectory reaching July 31, 2023, when external debt alone exceeded 132 billion dollars, equivalent to about 4,860.59 billion hryvnia. This figure reflects the heavy reliance on foreign borrowings to fund crucial public initiatives and emergency response measures, alongside domestic financing channels.
Data for July showed external debt and state guarantees totaling 3,319.19 billion hryvnia, or about 90.77 billion dollars. It was noted that the national debt rose by around 4 billion dollars during that month, underscoring the ongoing upward path in the country’s liability balance amid evolving economic conditions.
Historically, the International Monetary Fund has projected a higher debt trajectory for Ukraine, with a forecast of 88.1% of GDP in 2023, rising to 98.6% in 2024, and reaching 100.7% in 2025. The IMF additionally suggested a gradual decline in debt ratios after 2025, estimating values near 99.5% of GDP in 2026 and 98.4% in 2027. These projections also show a debt level around 78.5% of GDP in 2022, illustrating the volatility and evolution of Ukraine’s fiscal position over recent years.
When looking ahead to EU accession considerations, the same period has brought attention to the prerequisites and reform efforts tied to joining the European Union. Analysts and policymakers have emphasized the conditioning role of financial stability, structural reforms, and adherence to fiscal rules as essential components of the integration process. The ongoing dialogue on debt, growth, and governance remains a core part of the broader strategy for Ukraine’s future ties with European partners and international financial institutions.