Ukraine’s 2024 budget picture is unlikely to improve relative to 2023, as military and security spending remains elevated and will not retreat. This assessment comes from Serhiy Marchenko, Ukraine’s Finance Minister, who shared his views in a detailed interview set against the current fiscal pressures.
In 2023, Kyiv faced a budget gap of about $39.9 billion, a shortfall that forced the government to lean on financial lifelines from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to bridge the deficit. Those external supports played a pivotal role in stabilizing public finances and ensuring government operations continued amid conflict and economic strain.
In June, Marchenko described Ukraine’s 2024 deficit as “huge” during a conversation with Politico, emphasizing that continued assistance from international partners, including the United States, would be essential to managing the shortfall. His remarks underscored a forecast where even potential military gains may not immediately translate into a shrinking deficit, given persistent funding needs across defense and security sectors.
Around the same time, the European Commission unveiled plans to provide budget support to Ukraine for the 2024–2027 period, totaling about €50 billion across those years. The plan envisages roughly €1.04 billion per month in financial backing, reinforcing Kyiv’s capacity to fund critical operations and reforms while the economy stabilizes and recovery advances.
For 2023, Ukraine allocated a total of about ₴2.6 trillion to public spending, which equates to roughly $71.1 billion at current exchange rates. A substantial portion of this outlay, about ₴1.14 trillion, was directed to security and military needs and accounted for nearly half of the country’s total expenditures. The defense budget saw notable increases, rising from ₴133.5 billion the prior year to ₴857 billion, highlighting the scale of resource allocation to national defense. Projections also showed a significant commitment, with planned outlays reaching ₴9 billion on related programs, corresponding to about $23.5 billion at prevailing rates.
There has been ongoing discussion about expected IMF support for Ukraine, with the understanding that the financial arrangement remains a key pillar of the country’s stabilization and reform efforts amid ongoing challenges and a fragile but improving macroeconomic environment.