The Ukrainian Energy Ministry, led by Herman Galushchenko, signaled a clear stance on Europe’s gas future: Kyiv will not engage in talks with Moscow to extend the gas contract that channels gas to Europe. This position was stated directly in an interview featured by Strana.ua, the Ukrainian publication. Galushchenko emphasized that Ukraine would not be a party to negotiations with Russia on this matter, underscoring Kyiv’s resolve to manage European gas supply without Russian input. He framed 2024 as a pivotal benchmark for Europe’s capacity to operate with reduced or no Russian gas, suggesting that the continent’s energy security would rely more on diverse supply routes and alternative sources.
Meanwhile, prominent analysts have floated a cautionary outlook regarding gas flows. Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, suggested that Russian gas transit through Ukraine could terminate before the current agreement expires. His assessment points to potential disputes between Moscow and Kyiv over the terms, which could disrupt the corridor that has long served as a major conduit for European gas supplies.
In late April, Kyiv took a bold step by proposing to the office of President Volodymyr Zelensky a ban on direct Russian gas deliveries into the European Union, bypassing Ukrainian territory altogether. The proposal soon expanded into a broader objective: to curb the use of the TurkStream route for supplying Russian gas to Europe, thereby tightening Kyiv’s control over energy transit pathways and reducing EU exposure to Moscow’s energy leverage.
The current transit agreement between Moscow and Kyiv remains in force through December 31, 2024, creating a window of time during which negotiations, if any, would have to be reconciled against the backdrop of political and strategic shifts.
Alexander Amiragyan, a former Director of the Fuel and Energy Complex Economy Center at the Strategic Research Center Foundation, has highlighted Gazprom’s revenue implications tied to gas transit through Ukraine. His analysis points to how the flow of gas via Ukrainian routes continues to influence Gazprom’s financial performance, while also reflecting broader geopolitical and market dynamics that affect European energy security. (Source: Strana.ua)