The retail and office real estate market in Russia shows a blend of stagnation and cautious adaptation to new realities. A recent briefing highlights that after a pause, activity is returning slowly, with Moscow and St. Petersburg at the center of the shift. Analysts note that foot traffic is edging up in major shopping centers in St. Petersburg, which supports the expectation that vacancies will edge lower in the coming months. Demand for high street retail is reviving, even as new housing complexes add to the supply pool, creating a nuanced balance between space demand and available options.
In the office sector, the picture is more restrained. Despite a modest dip in vacancies in the first quarter, forecasts point to a gradual uptick in the second and third quarters, influenced by higher borrowing costs and slower economic momentum. The market appears to be moving in a restrained direction, with vacancies tightening but not yet at a pace that signals rapid change.
Within Moscow, the retail market is described as stable overall. The opening of new centers has been limited in the near term, with one notable development being the Liner shopping centre. This reflects a cautious approach to new openings in a market characterized by measured demand and selective occupancy growth.
Forecasts suggest that a clearer reduction in the share of vacant retail space will become more evident in the second half of the year. Today, vacancies in successful shopping malls run around the mid-to-high single digits, a sign of residual space still awaiting absorption in a gradually improving environment.
Earlier analyses indicated that 2023 marked a record year for real estate investment in Russia, reflecting a period of heightened activity and strategic repositioning. The market has since faced shifting dynamics, with investors reassessing risk and opportunity in the wake of changing macroeconomic conditions. In Moscow, there has been a notable rebound in demand for certain asset types, signaling a selective revival rather than broad-based acceleration.
As the landscape evolves, observers emphasize the importance of careful portfolio management, adaptive leasing strategies, and targeted development that aligns with evolving consumer patterns and business needs. The overall tone suggests resilience and a measured path forward for both retail and office real estate in Russia, with key markets continuing to attract attention from local and international stakeholders alike. For those tracking market trajectories, the emphasis remains on absorption rates, occupancy levels, and the interplay between supply additions and demand recovery, as the calendar moves through the rest of the year, supported by ongoing market intelligence and sector commentary from industry sources.