The ruble is expected to stay in a corridor around 90 to 93 per unit. A dip against the US dollar in April reflected the positive current account balance in Russia’s balance of payments, a view shared by analysts from Alfa Capital Management Company and relayed to socialbites.ca.
Data from the Central Bank show a current account surplus of 4.5 billion dollars in January and 5.2 billion dollars in February. When exports earn more foreign exchange than imports spend, the domestic market receives a steady stream of currency, helping to cushion the ruble from sharp declines.
Experts note that a robust export revenue flow reduces the pressure on the ruble to weaken, provided the money supply remains ample.
Analysts caution that several other factors will keep shaping exchange rate movements. Geopolitical developments, the level of the Central Bank’s policy rate, consumer demand, and the pace of foreign trade all play a role in the currency’s path.
BCS World of Investments stock market analyst Dmitry Babin noted that after Russia closes the March tax period on the 28th, the dollar could trade around 93 to 93.5 rubles. This assessment points to a temporary pull on the ruble linked to tax timing and fiscal flows.
The same analyst argued that while the tax period supports the ruble, a post-period increase in foreign currency supply could press the ruble lower. Denis Perepelitsa, an associate professor in the Department of World Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics GV Plekhanov, projected that the dollar might rise to about 95 rubles in April because of rising geopolitical tensions and the potential for capital outflows.
In the market cycle ahead, Russians were advised on practical strategies for buying and selling foreign currency, emphasizing prudent timing and risk awareness.